The Time for Gold Draws Near: USA VS. CANADA, 1:15 Mountain

So here we are, the exact match up of a week ago, only now for all the marbles. Before I break into the statistical breakdown of this game, I'd like to briefly examine the social environment of this game from both sides. For the Canadians, this is as big as it gets on a national stage, and the consensus from them is one of confidence heading into this game, carried with the usual lack of respect for American hockey. That lack of respect is not entirely unfounded, and exists today as American apathy and ignorance towards hockey (for instance, some of my friends say things like ,"I haven't followed hockey since the strike" and, "I don't know any of the players anymore"). Canadian fans certainly do not want to see a country that clearly does not love hockey as much as it does win the Gold medal on their ice.
And on the other side of that coin, the American fans are confident, and almost cocky, heading into this game. The majority of Americans watching this game, to quote Al Michaels, "don't know the difference between a blue line and a clothes lines." They certainly feel that all the pressure is on the Canadians, especially after squeezing out a 3-2 win against the Slovaks on Friday. A lot of American hockey fans, myself included, feel that Canada never recognizes our attention, dedication to and love for the game. Alas, hockey fans are marginalized in this country, and ignorance seems to be the general trend of the American casual hockey fan (i.e. few fans of the Colorado Avalanche knew who Craig Anderson was before the start of the 2009-2010 season). Now that, in some semblance, the rivalry has been explained, I will now move on to analyze the game.
It is often said that the winner of an Olympic hockey tournament is the team with the best goaltender (a la Dominick Hasek in Nagano 1998). There is no question at this point who the best goaltender in this tournament is, and simply put, its Miller Time. Ryan Miller leads all goaltenders in the Olympics with a crazy .953 save percentage and an equally stunning 1.04 GAA. Roberto Luongo, his opponent in this game, has a .919 save percentage with a 1.75 GAA. Last Sunday, Miller made 43 saves against Martin Brodeur's 17 (on 22 shots, ouch). Regardless, the goaltender who should be starting here isn't, and won't see any ice time at these olympics (despite being on the roster and many other teams deploying 3 different goalies in the tournament, Mike Babcock seems to be holding a grudge against Marc-Andre Fleury for stone walling his Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, but this rant is for another day). I expect the shot chart to look much the same, and Miller will need another Herculean effort today.
The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether or not the Americans get into penalty trouble, since their PK for the tournament has been a questionable 76.9%. The United States, however, has taken the least amount of penalties (13 in five games) of any team in this tournament, so they have been at least disciplined. Canada has given up one less power play goal than the US (3 to 2), and have the best PK in the tournament with an 88.24%. Power play wise, these two teams are just about as efficient as the other (Canada's 29.17% to USA's 28.57). If Canada gets on the advantage, this is certainly an area where they might dominate(their blue line has 27 points in 6 games, America's has only 12 from two players in 5 games). Look out for Shea Weber's bomb from the point that he literally put through the net in the play-in game against Germany.
Interestingly, the Americans have taken almost 100 less shots than the Canadians (155 in 5 games to 243 in 6 games), and have been much more opportune in that regard. Percentage wise, in terms of scoring efficiency, both teams are shooting around 15%(Canada 13.17, USA 14.19). Canada's 32 goals in the tournament are tops, America's 22 (tied with Slovakia) are second best. These teams will score given the chance. Offensive X factors include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Malone (not a dynamo, but if he scores it motivates his team).
On the defensive side, the US has given up just 6 goals in 5 games, while Canada has given up 14. The unit in red, white and blue is much more stout physically than Canada's, and while at once not as offensively gifted, they will hit you in the mouth without hesitation. The United States has played much more physically than any other team in this tournament, and if the trends continue today (Miller as a brick wall, USA as an opportune team, a little too much pressure on Canada), the Americans will have their first Gold in 30 years. However, I must stick with my guns, I've been harping on Canada as the gold winner for three weeks now, and I see them getting the job done today, 4-3.