The Toronto Maple Leafs have not seen Playoff Hockey since the 2003-2004 season. Their fan base is beginning to believe that this team might be cursed. Not only have they not won Lord Stanley's Cup since 1967, when the NHL was only a 6 team league, they haven't even been back to the Finals since then. Their current roster is jam packed with outstanding young talent, but none of it seems to be heading in the right direction, or even the same direction. The inconsistencies in draft philosophies are evident here, as the Leafs have flip-flopped GMs twice now in the past 4 seasons. Burke pickups are beginning to define this team's identity, which is something it has been lacking in previous years. Not since Mats Sundin was taking this team to the playoffs 6 straight seasons, reaching at least the conference semifinals in 5 of those years, has this team had an identity. Somehow, this team expects to make it to the post-season next year.
Their management, Brian Burke in particular, is in no hurry to pay respect to veteran leadership, case in point with Dion Phaneuf being named the franchise's next captain over the experienced Tomas Kaberle, who finished second on the team in points with 49 last season in 82 games. Burke is sending a message to his players with this move, and that is this team will be physical if nothing else, and guys like Kaberle just don't fit that profile. In all likelihood, Kaberle is gone by the draft, as Burke has widely acknowledged that he has received offers for his services, and that he was willing to listen to said offers. What he gets in return is anyone's guess, just know that the days of Kaberle being worth a first round pick are long gone. Do not expect Toronto to trade back in to the first round with a package that includes only Kaberle, they will have to package a prospect or two in order to get that done. A more realistic expectation would be a scoring forward and a mid-round selection for the Czech defender.
A main issue for the Leafs is coaching, as Ron Wilson has shown he cannot take a group of rag-tag players and make them winners, as he did when he coached in Washington. Even in the playoffs, Wilson's recent track record is one of repeated failure as coach of the San Jose Sharks. His teams are never physical juggernauts, which is what Burke wants this Leafs team to be from here on out. If Burke expects this team to win by hitting with Wilson behind the bench, he is quite mistaken, because that is simply not a style of coaching suited for Wilson. Besides that, this team is too young to know how to win on any level in the NHL, and the only veteran leadership they have in Kaberle is already halfway out the door. If this team wants an example of how to play with tenacity and exuberance, and to win, it should look no further than across its own province to the Ottawa Senators, who nearly took Pittsburgh to seven games in the first round of the playoffs this year.
No player on the Leafs scored more than 55 points last season, and even that was a disappointment in Phil Kessel's game. Boston perhaps knew that Kessel was not going to live up to his draft status (5th overall in 2006), and got what they could for him (to the tune of this years second overall pick and other picks, a king's ransom). The depth of young talent on this roster is truly staggering. Performances last season like Luke Schenn's or Tyler Bozak's in the second half are exactly what Burke wants to see moving forward. What is even more staggering is that Burke acquired a lot of his talent through trades, not the patient build-through-the-draft approach that is becoming popular. He may have to make some more trades, or even go after a big free agent (Kovalchuk, maybe Alex Frolov) before he has what he wants, but Burke will get a competitive on-the-ice product soon. Maybe not in the next year, but soon.
Returning players: Phil Kessel, Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stalberg, Luca Caputi, Fredrick Sjostrom, Colton Orr, Dion Phaneuf, Tomas Kaberle (contract only, expect him to be traded), Carl Gunnarsson, Luke Schenn, Francois Beauchemin, Jeff Finger, Mike Komisarek, Jean-Sebastian Giguere, Jonas Gustavsson
Free Agents who will likely be back: Nikolai Kulemin (RFA), John Mitchell (RFA), Christian Hanson (RFA)
According to CapGeek.com, the Maple Leafs have about $10 million in cap space. Expect them to try to make a splash, but the money may be too tight in this instance to go after, say, Ilya Kovalchuk. They need to add at least one top 6 forward, a third line center and a veteran defender.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
A team without a face: Edmonton Oilers offseason preview
For the Edmonton Oilers, nothing seems to be going in the right direction. They haven't been back to Lord Stanley's Playoffs since their miracle run to the Finals in 2006. They can't seem to find an identity anywhere, despite earnest attempts by management to put the right personalities together (somewhat ironic if you consider the 2006 team, there's hardly a more iconic hockey player than Ryan Smyth). They finished dead last in the NHL with 62 points, 12 less than 29th place Toronto and 17 less than 14th-in-the-West Columbus. They find themselves in much the same situation the Chicago Blackhawks did a few years ago, or the Pittsburgh Penguins before them: stuck with a roster of older players who can't get it done and young players who can't find an identity or rhythm with the team. It is certainly a formidable task ahead, but rebuilding in the NHL does not take as long as it once did, and is certainly possible in the case of the Oilers, though to think they'll be back in competition next season is a bit far fetched. Make no bones about it, this team is in need of a major overhaul.
One thing that could turn this all around, the Oilers have in the first overall draft pick in this months draft, but speculation is the Oilers are shopping the pick in order to acquire some top flight talent in the short term. Steve Tambellini, the GM of the Oilers, however, knows trading the pick is the flat out wrong thing to do in this situation. He has enough buyouts on his mind to begin with, and trading players like Sheldon Souray won't net his team a whole lot in return (at most a mid round draft choice). Look for them to take Tyler Seguin with the first pick, make him their franchise center, and move Sam Gagner down to the second line (his play last year indicated he is more a 2nd liner than a 1st). It was when this team got trade happy (Chris Pronger and Ryan Smyth both gone during the 2007 season) that it fell from grace, and that will usually happen. This is a league that now strives on team chemistry, and too many trades can decimate said chemistry (just look at the New Jersey Devils last season until they added Kovalchuk). In addition, Tambellini has a long list of young players who haven't been living up to their draft potential and could be dealt as well (Patrick O'Sullivan had a league worst -31 ranking, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Jones, Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, even Ales Hemsky might be on the block). If he can't trade some of these players, expect Tambellini to buy them out. If one thing is to be taken from Tambellini in this situation, it is that he is willing and ready to be patient and do what is necessary to make this team win again. Patience must be a virtue for him, or the Oilers will not find their way out of the basement for some time.
Keep in mind that there is some young talent on this roster, but for whatever reason (last year it was goaltending) this team can't keep up with the Northwest Division, which is now squarely back in Vancouver, Calgary, and Colorado's respective grasp. Losing Hemsky (who was +7 with 22 points in 22 games) for 60 games last season surely helped doom this team, but there is more than enough talent to make up for that. Dustin Penner continues to disappoint, even though his 32 goals and 63 points last season were career highs and gave Edmonton fans at least a glimpse of the talent they thought they grabbed from Anaheim. Shawn Horcoff was awful with 13 goals, 23 assists and a -29 rating in 77 appearances. He is signed on for five more years at around $5 million per season, ouch. Ethan Moreau, while invaluable as a leader, is simply not worth $2 million a season, so a buyout seems logical for him. The lack of offense didn't matter any way, as Edmonton's questionable goaltending cost them game after game (combined, the Oiler goaltenders were 27-47-8 with a .900 save % and 3.28 GAA). Tambellini is going to have a rough time trying to trade Nikolai Khabibulin in favor of Jeff Deslauriers, who needs a new contract. Khabibulin appeared only 18 times, none after his November 19th start against Columbus, and got a DUI citation in February. Their defense didn't help either, as 8 of the 11 defensemen that dressed in the regular season finished with a minus rating (Taylor Chorney's is a ghastly -21).
According to CapGeek.com, the Oilers have about $12.5 Million in cap space. Do not expect them to be big players in free agency, the intention of management is clearly to build through the draft. They need scoring depth, at least 2 top 6 forwards, and another couple of top 4 defenders.
Returning Players: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner, Ryan Jones, Robert Nillson, Zack Stortini, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ethan Moreau, Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Sheldon Souray, Taylor Chorney, Nikolai Khabibulin
Free Agents who will likely be back: Gilbert Brule (RFA), Sam Gagner (RFA), Andrew Cogliano (RFA), Ryan Stone (RFA), Jeff Deslauriers (RFA)
Top Prospects: Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Linus Omark, Anton Lander
One thing that could turn this all around, the Oilers have in the first overall draft pick in this months draft, but speculation is the Oilers are shopping the pick in order to acquire some top flight talent in the short term. Steve Tambellini, the GM of the Oilers, however, knows trading the pick is the flat out wrong thing to do in this situation. He has enough buyouts on his mind to begin with, and trading players like Sheldon Souray won't net his team a whole lot in return (at most a mid round draft choice). Look for them to take Tyler Seguin with the first pick, make him their franchise center, and move Sam Gagner down to the second line (his play last year indicated he is more a 2nd liner than a 1st). It was when this team got trade happy (Chris Pronger and Ryan Smyth both gone during the 2007 season) that it fell from grace, and that will usually happen. This is a league that now strives on team chemistry, and too many trades can decimate said chemistry (just look at the New Jersey Devils last season until they added Kovalchuk). In addition, Tambellini has a long list of young players who haven't been living up to their draft potential and could be dealt as well (Patrick O'Sullivan had a league worst -31 ranking, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Jones, Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, even Ales Hemsky might be on the block). If he can't trade some of these players, expect Tambellini to buy them out. If one thing is to be taken from Tambellini in this situation, it is that he is willing and ready to be patient and do what is necessary to make this team win again. Patience must be a virtue for him, or the Oilers will not find their way out of the basement for some time.
Keep in mind that there is some young talent on this roster, but for whatever reason (last year it was goaltending) this team can't keep up with the Northwest Division, which is now squarely back in Vancouver, Calgary, and Colorado's respective grasp. Losing Hemsky (who was +7 with 22 points in 22 games) for 60 games last season surely helped doom this team, but there is more than enough talent to make up for that. Dustin Penner continues to disappoint, even though his 32 goals and 63 points last season were career highs and gave Edmonton fans at least a glimpse of the talent they thought they grabbed from Anaheim. Shawn Horcoff was awful with 13 goals, 23 assists and a -29 rating in 77 appearances. He is signed on for five more years at around $5 million per season, ouch. Ethan Moreau, while invaluable as a leader, is simply not worth $2 million a season, so a buyout seems logical for him. The lack of offense didn't matter any way, as Edmonton's questionable goaltending cost them game after game (combined, the Oiler goaltenders were 27-47-8 with a .900 save % and 3.28 GAA). Tambellini is going to have a rough time trying to trade Nikolai Khabibulin in favor of Jeff Deslauriers, who needs a new contract. Khabibulin appeared only 18 times, none after his November 19th start against Columbus, and got a DUI citation in February. Their defense didn't help either, as 8 of the 11 defensemen that dressed in the regular season finished with a minus rating (Taylor Chorney's is a ghastly -21).
According to CapGeek.com, the Oilers have about $12.5 Million in cap space. Do not expect them to be big players in free agency, the intention of management is clearly to build through the draft. They need scoring depth, at least 2 top 6 forwards, and another couple of top 4 defenders.
Returning Players: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner, Ryan Jones, Robert Nillson, Zack Stortini, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ethan Moreau, Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Sheldon Souray, Taylor Chorney, Nikolai Khabibulin
Free Agents who will likely be back: Gilbert Brule (RFA), Sam Gagner (RFA), Andrew Cogliano (RFA), Ryan Stone (RFA), Jeff Deslauriers (RFA)
Top Prospects: Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Linus Omark, Anton Lander
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