For those expected to win yesterday in the preliminary round of the tournament there were no surprises. Some of the teams cut it a little close, but we'll still get, for the most part, power house match ups today. Tonight will be the biggest international confrontation between Russia and Canada since the Canada Cup in the late 80s. The hockey world is already buzzing at the thought of this game, and in some respects, this is much more tantalizing than an All-Star Game. The fact of the matter is, whoever loses does not medal, a prospect hockey pundits would've scoffed at merely a week ago, myself included. But that precisely is the magic of these Olympic games. Ovechkin/Crosby is gonna be good tonight, needless to say. Here, as usual, is my analysis of the games yesterday and today.
YESTERDAY:
SWITZERLAND 4, BELARUS 3 (SHOOTOUT)
- An interesting game considering the Swiss gave up 3 goals to the Belorussians. Their defense is good, no doubt, but one would have thought that this game would come a little easier for the Swiss. Word at the beginning of these games is that the Swiss want a medal. Not good news for them now that they have to play an extremely confident USA squad, but that was to be expected, considering their seeding. Belarus gave a solid effort at the Olympics, and if you're a country like Belarus, this is really all you'll be able to accomplish against super teams from the NHL.
CANADA 8, GERMANY 2
- This is pretty much what everyone expected would happen. Canada will play the rest of this tournament with a chip on their shoulders, and Roberto Luongo in net it looks like. Great team that just got upset hands it to a team that just can't keep up. Not much else here to consider except that Canada now has a top line of Eric Staal, Sidney Crosby, and Jarome Iginla. This team looked a lot more complete than they did against the USA team, but that was to be expected.
CZECH REPUBLIC 4, LATVIA 3 (OVERTIME)
- This was the big surprise on a day of otherwise fulfilled expectations. The Czechs should have won this game, and they were resiliant when they had to be, especially in the latter portion of the third period and moving into OT. However, that doesn't excuse the fact that they were playing Latvia, and any such lapses in scoring touch will put them in a quick hole against their next opponent Finland. If Kipprusoff stands on his head the way Latvia's Edgars Masalskis did last night, the Czechs will find themselves out of Vancouver shortly.
SLOVAKIA 4, NORWAY 3
- This is eerily similar to their rivals game aginst the Latvians. Norway's goalie wasn't particularly hot, the Slovaks just really wanted to lose this game, it felt like. Sure, they held the fort at the end, but they were playing one of the worst teams in the tournament and it should've been over long before that. If they come with the same lackadaisical effort against the Swedes, they'll get blown out. Even if they don't they might get blown out.
TODAY:
1:00- #1 USA VS. #8 SWITZERLAND
- This is precisely what the USA earned with its win over the Canadians on Sunday: the right to play a lower seeded team. The ball is in the Americans court to get to the gold medal game, at least. Their road is by far the easiest of any team in the tournament, as it should be for a top seed. Don't expect this to be as close as their 3-1 game in pool play. Even if Jonas Hiller is a wall, don't expect the Swiss offense to do much against the physical, smart American defense (they played with much more intelligence against Canada). The USA will win at least 4-1, and advance to play either Finland or the Czech Republic in the Semi-Finals.
5:30- #3 RUSSIA VS. #6 CANADA
- This game is going to be huge. Consequently, I will run through the offenses and defenses in this game, as well as analyze the goaltending and special teams of both teams. This is a game with social and even political implications for both countries. Both countries don't just want Gold like the Americans do, they expect it (a la USA basketball). And one of them will not medal. This is by far the biggest international rivalry going at this time, much to the shagrin of American fans.
WHEN RUSSIA ATTACKS: Look for quick puck movement between the shifty Russian forwards as they attempt to navigate around an all-star defense. Malkin will lead the way though, not Ovechkin as he lead the team in points in pool play. When not on the rush, look for the Russians to attempt to get as much traffic in front of Roberto Luongo as they can. When on the rush, the Russians will be trying to make Luongo move around in his crease and test his quickness. The Canadians will be physical with the Russians much more so than they were with the Americans. The depth of Canada's defensemen trumps the depth of the Russian forwards. EDGE: EVEN
WHEN CANADA ATTACKS: This team almost banked on the American defense jumping up into plays to create counter-attack oppurtunities on Sunday. The Americans didn't, and the Canadians lost. The Russian defenders are good, but not good enough to contain this roster unless they put forth a supreme effort as they are no where near as deep as the Americans. Canada will continue to do what it has done all tournament: work along the side boards to create chances, whether by working them down low into the slot, or passing it back to guys like Shea Weber who can literally put the puck through the net (incredible play from last night's game with the Germans). If Crosby works the sideboards all game, look out as his outlets from there are either Jarome Iginla or the aforementioned Weber. And Russia's defense may not be good enough, or fast enough, to keep up. EDGE: CANADA
RUSSIAN GOALTENDER: EVGENI NABOKOV
- In this tournament, Nabby is 3-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA. He's been good when he has had to be. But the team he's facing tonight is a horse of a complete different color. An interesting note, however, is that Nabokov plays for the San Jose Sharks, and faces Canada's Heatley-Thornton-Marleau line every day in practice. He may have it in him to stand in his head tonight and pull out a win, do not count him out.
CANADIAN GOALTENDER: ROBERTO LUONGO
- Luongo, while facing decidedly lower competition in Norway and Germany, is in the shape one would expect with a .947 save percentage and a 1.00 GAA. What goes for Nabokov goes for Roberto as well, this is a super team Canada is facing tonight, even more talented than the Americans. He can easily stand on his head, and tonight should not be a big problem for him. However, if Russia gets in his head early and makes it 2-0 (just a random score), that is when Luongo can struggle to win games. If Russia gets in his head early, they have a much better chance to win.
EDGE: CANADA
WHEN RUSSIA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- Look for them to go with the Pittsburgh Penguin attack that they have been of playing Gonchar at the point and having Malkin up there as well and letting those two quarterback. Canada, though, knows how to play against that (or at least Crosby and Fleury do). The talent level for both teams is so high that even a one man advantage is huge. Both powerplays, if given the chance, should light the lamp. EDGE: RUSSIA
WHEN CANADA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- This powerplay could be compared to a weapon of mass destruction. That's how good they are. That said, they cannot wait to get the powerplay unit working until late in the third, as they did on Sunday. Crosby has to step up, and usually, when that's the case, he does. They have the better powerplay of the two teams, and they need to exploit one of the only advantages they are going to get against this Russian team. EDGE: CANADA
PICK
- This game could be one for the ages. These are two titans at the heights of their powers going at it. Ovechkin/Crosby will be the main focus I'm sure, and that will only make it a little easier for these teams to hate eachother, if they don't already. This is going to be a fantastic game, and I see the Canadians winning in overtime 5-4.
8:00- #4 FINLAND VS. #5 CZECH REPUBLIC
- Tough act to follow, to say the least. However, this game should provide plenty of drama as both teams can score, both can defend, and both can hit. Jaromir Jagr is still not 100% after taking that bomb of a hit from Alexander Ovechkin on Sunday, and his health is huge variable for this Czech team. Goaltending is the quesiton in this game, as Tomas Vokoun was shaky against the Latvians yesterday and Mikka Kipprusoff looked really questionable against the Swedes on Sunday night. The onus is on Finland to take control of this game and move on to the semis, which I think they will with a grind-it-out 3-2 win over the Czechs.
10:00- #2 SWEDEN VS. #7 SLOVAKIA
- Good way to end a full day of great games. Sweden's offense has not looked as impressive as it has in previous years (aging Peter Forsberg, Daniel Alfredsson, Niclas Lidstrom, no Mats Sundin). That is the one hope Slovakia has to win this game. They need a sub par effort from Sweden's scorers to even have a chance. Their effort against Norway was complete garbage, and they are lucky to be here. They could prove me wrong and play a fantastic game tonight (the pieces are certainly there). For Sweden, they just need to score 3 or 4 goals. If they score, they'll win with Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes.
-Since all my picks from the first round held true, I don't need to update my speculation bracket. Yet.
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