Monday, April 12, 2010

It's the most wonderful time of the year: Stanley Cup Playoff Preview (Western Conference)

The Western Conference, when compared with the East this season, is simply a much more balanced, physical, and all around better conference than the seemingly top heavy beasts in Pittsburgh, Washington and New Jersey. It took Colorado 95 points to secure the final spot out West, in the East Montreal secured their bid with only 88, which would have placed them in 12th place had they been in the other conference. This group is a mystery, and no one knows exactly what will come of this conference. Can the Sharks finally break their post-season curse? Is this the year the Cup goes back to Chicago for the first time since 1961? Could Phoenix continue to surprise and come out on top? Let's take a look to try to make some sense of this maze:

1. SAN JOSE SHARKS (51-20-11, 113 points) VS. 8. COLORADO AVALANCHE (43-30-9, 95 points)
- This is a series of opposites. You have on one side a team loaded with experience (albeit of bowing out early in the playoffs) that everyone expects to deliver season after season, yet they never do. On the other side, a team with little to no experience of the postseason that had no expectations whatsoever for this season, and they delivered on what nobody thought they could. Goaltending wise, Evgeni Nabokov has never been one to stand out in the post season, ditto for teammate Joe Thornton, who might very well be the biggest playoff choke of all time in hockey considering he led the NHL in scoring the last decade. The Avs have had a magical season thus far, and the amount of injuries this team suffered never seemed to slow them down. Their rookie core stepped in immediately, led by Matt Duchene, Ryan O'reilly and T.J. Galiardi.They put up the 4th most goals in the West and 6th most in the NHL this season, which is mind boggling considering where the Avalanche were just a season ago. The season series was split with both teams pulling out 2 victories, all 4 of the games were filled with shots on both sides, so the goalies should be plenty busy. If this is a goaltender's series, it is much more likely that the flash in the pan belongs to Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson than it does to Nabokov (season stats: Nabokov piled up 44 wins, .922 save % and 2.34 GAA while Cranderson, as some Avalanche fans affectionalely call him, won 38 games with a .917 save % and 2.64 GAA). Anderson faced more shots than any goaltender in the NHL this season, so his 38 wins in a franchise record 70 starts are something to behold. I don't see the Sharks slipping up yet though, and they should beat this team considering what little playoff experience their opponents have and the fact that they have the second best offense in the NHL goal wise. Simply stating the facts as they might appear in this case, which isn't to say an upset won't happen. Sharks in 6 games.

2. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (52-22-8, 112 points) VS. 7. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (47-29-6, 100 points)
- This is where the hockey world gets its first look at the Blackhawk goaltenders in the playoffs, a topic much anticipated by many. Cristobal Huet had a save percentage of .895 in 48 games, winning 26 of those games. Antti Niemi, on the other hand, won the same number of games in just 39 starts, leading some to believe Niemi could see some time this series. It may not matter who starts if neither of them is up to the task of stopping this potent, well coached Nashville lineup which boasts 9 players who scored 10 or more goals this season. Chicago, however, has the second best defense in the Western Conference behind Phoenix, the 'Hawks letting in 209 goals while the 'Yotes just 202. The Preds might be able to bank on some divisional hate for the Blackhawks to motivate them, but they will need much more than that to beat this skilled, fast, physical lineup of Chicago. They will need Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne to steal games. They will need Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to dominate Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews. They will need spotty goaltending from Chicago. One of the three of those does not a series victory make. Blackhawks in 5 games.

3. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (49-28-5, 103 points)VS. 6. LOS ANGELES KINGS (46-27-9, 101 points)
- Before I break this series down, I would like to talk about the conception of this series by the national media, specifically ESPN. They regard an LA victory in this series as an upset. These teams are seperated in the standings by one game, that's it. This series is more or less a toss up, but what the Canucks do have going for them is recent experience of playoff games, where most of these Kings are seeing the playoffs for the first time. Los Angeles is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003, and there could be one of those weird magical waves that the Stanley Cup Playoff atmosphere just seem to manufacute year after year. This LA team knows it has a good chance to advance here. Vancouver is the best hope that Canada has of reclaiming the Cup from the United States, so that pressure might be felt in the locker room, and these are not the same athelets who beat the United States in the olympics, for the most part. There won't be a Scott Niedermayer there to deny a chance should that situation arise. Keep in mind that Los Angeles won 24 road games this season, tied for most in the NHL. This is exactly the kind of matchup the NHL owners had in mind when they restructured the game after the lockout, and the parity in their league is rivaled now only by the NFL. This is an LA team that is a victim of inconsistent forward play, and that might take place here should nerves get the better of them. Quick, in addition, was worn down at the end of the season, and I see that translating to quick goals for the Vancouver lineup in otherwise close games that will decide those contests. Vancouver in 6 games.

4. PHOENIX COYOTES (50-25-7, 107 points) VS. 5. DETROIT RED WINGS (44-24-14, 102 points)
- Though Detroit won less games than both Los Angeles and Nashville, they snuck in to the 5th seed as a result of their losses in overtimes and shootouts. Some would argue the team with more wins should be a higher seed, but since the NHL rewards losing in close fashion these days, Detroit avoided meeting Vancouver, Chicago, or San Jose in the first round. Not many are giving Phoenix much of a chance to get this series won, but their defense is the best in the conference, and if they can choke the life out of a rapidly aging Red Wings squad with their trap-style play, they could move on to the next round, and by all accounts, shock the hockey world once again. Detroit righted the ship after the olympic break and were the NHL's best team in the span. They have boatloads of experience with championship results, so Red Wings fans should be confident in their team to get the job done. Just don't expect it to be a 4 or 5 game affair, because if the Red Wings get big headed now, Phoenix will blow right past them. As it is, I don't see that happening, largely because of Mike Babcock being behind the bench. Red Wings in 7 games.

1 comment:

  1. you know what to do, right? the second round! so DO IT! we all await your sage advice, number 1 hockey guy!

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