The Western Conference, when compared with the East this season, is simply a much more balanced, physical, and all around better conference than the seemingly top heavy beasts in Pittsburgh, Washington and New Jersey. It took Colorado 95 points to secure the final spot out West, in the East Montreal secured their bid with only 88, which would have placed them in 12th place had they been in the other conference. This group is a mystery, and no one knows exactly what will come of this conference. Can the Sharks finally break their post-season curse? Is this the year the Cup goes back to Chicago for the first time since 1961? Could Phoenix continue to surprise and come out on top? Let's take a look to try to make some sense of this maze:
1. SAN JOSE SHARKS (51-20-11, 113 points) VS. 8. COLORADO AVALANCHE (43-30-9, 95 points)
- This is a series of opposites. You have on one side a team loaded with experience (albeit of bowing out early in the playoffs) that everyone expects to deliver season after season, yet they never do. On the other side, a team with little to no experience of the postseason that had no expectations whatsoever for this season, and they delivered on what nobody thought they could. Goaltending wise, Evgeni Nabokov has never been one to stand out in the post season, ditto for teammate Joe Thornton, who might very well be the biggest playoff choke of all time in hockey considering he led the NHL in scoring the last decade. The Avs have had a magical season thus far, and the amount of injuries this team suffered never seemed to slow them down. Their rookie core stepped in immediately, led by Matt Duchene, Ryan O'reilly and T.J. Galiardi.They put up the 4th most goals in the West and 6th most in the NHL this season, which is mind boggling considering where the Avalanche were just a season ago. The season series was split with both teams pulling out 2 victories, all 4 of the games were filled with shots on both sides, so the goalies should be plenty busy. If this is a goaltender's series, it is much more likely that the flash in the pan belongs to Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson than it does to Nabokov (season stats: Nabokov piled up 44 wins, .922 save % and 2.34 GAA while Cranderson, as some Avalanche fans affectionalely call him, won 38 games with a .917 save % and 2.64 GAA). Anderson faced more shots than any goaltender in the NHL this season, so his 38 wins in a franchise record 70 starts are something to behold. I don't see the Sharks slipping up yet though, and they should beat this team considering what little playoff experience their opponents have and the fact that they have the second best offense in the NHL goal wise. Simply stating the facts as they might appear in this case, which isn't to say an upset won't happen. Sharks in 6 games.
2. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (52-22-8, 112 points) VS. 7. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (47-29-6, 100 points)
- This is where the hockey world gets its first look at the Blackhawk goaltenders in the playoffs, a topic much anticipated by many. Cristobal Huet had a save percentage of .895 in 48 games, winning 26 of those games. Antti Niemi, on the other hand, won the same number of games in just 39 starts, leading some to believe Niemi could see some time this series. It may not matter who starts if neither of them is up to the task of stopping this potent, well coached Nashville lineup which boasts 9 players who scored 10 or more goals this season. Chicago, however, has the second best defense in the Western Conference behind Phoenix, the 'Hawks letting in 209 goals while the 'Yotes just 202. The Preds might be able to bank on some divisional hate for the Blackhawks to motivate them, but they will need much more than that to beat this skilled, fast, physical lineup of Chicago. They will need Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne to steal games. They will need Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to dominate Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews. They will need spotty goaltending from Chicago. One of the three of those does not a series victory make. Blackhawks in 5 games.
3. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (49-28-5, 103 points)VS. 6. LOS ANGELES KINGS (46-27-9, 101 points)
- Before I break this series down, I would like to talk about the conception of this series by the national media, specifically ESPN. They regard an LA victory in this series as an upset. These teams are seperated in the standings by one game, that's it. This series is more or less a toss up, but what the Canucks do have going for them is recent experience of playoff games, where most of these Kings are seeing the playoffs for the first time. Los Angeles is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003, and there could be one of those weird magical waves that the Stanley Cup Playoff atmosphere just seem to manufacute year after year. This LA team knows it has a good chance to advance here. Vancouver is the best hope that Canada has of reclaiming the Cup from the United States, so that pressure might be felt in the locker room, and these are not the same athelets who beat the United States in the olympics, for the most part. There won't be a Scott Niedermayer there to deny a chance should that situation arise. Keep in mind that Los Angeles won 24 road games this season, tied for most in the NHL. This is exactly the kind of matchup the NHL owners had in mind when they restructured the game after the lockout, and the parity in their league is rivaled now only by the NFL. This is an LA team that is a victim of inconsistent forward play, and that might take place here should nerves get the better of them. Quick, in addition, was worn down at the end of the season, and I see that translating to quick goals for the Vancouver lineup in otherwise close games that will decide those contests. Vancouver in 6 games.
4. PHOENIX COYOTES (50-25-7, 107 points) VS. 5. DETROIT RED WINGS (44-24-14, 102 points)
- Though Detroit won less games than both Los Angeles and Nashville, they snuck in to the 5th seed as a result of their losses in overtimes and shootouts. Some would argue the team with more wins should be a higher seed, but since the NHL rewards losing in close fashion these days, Detroit avoided meeting Vancouver, Chicago, or San Jose in the first round. Not many are giving Phoenix much of a chance to get this series won, but their defense is the best in the conference, and if they can choke the life out of a rapidly aging Red Wings squad with their trap-style play, they could move on to the next round, and by all accounts, shock the hockey world once again. Detroit righted the ship after the olympic break and were the NHL's best team in the span. They have boatloads of experience with championship results, so Red Wings fans should be confident in their team to get the job done. Just don't expect it to be a 4 or 5 game affair, because if the Red Wings get big headed now, Phoenix will blow right past them. As it is, I don't see that happening, largely because of Mike Babcock being behind the bench. Red Wings in 7 games.
Monday, April 12, 2010
It's the most wonderful time of the year: Stanley Cup Playoff Preview (Eastern Conference)
It turns out that Boston/Washington game was pretty boring, too bad the NHL couldn't switch to that Flyers/Rangers game yesterday; I hate it when I'm right sometimes. On that note, now that the regular season is finished, it's time to look ahead to the magic that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. There are some intriguing series on both sides of the bracket, but I'd like to start today with a look at the Eastern Conference. Feel free to comment with your picks and certainly to trash mine.
1)WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-3, 121 points) VS. 8)MONTREAL CANADIENS (39-33-10, 88 points)
- This is the time Alexander Ovechkin has been waiting for: he wants vengeance against Crosby, the Penguins, and by proxy, the NHL at large after going down in flames last season. Other teams should duck and cover, and even then this Titanous lineup of Washington's seems overwhelming. Washington scored 101 more goals than Montreal this season, and no Canadien scored more than 30 goals (Washington has 3 30+ goal scorers). In addition, no Hab was over +11 for the season, while the Caps boast 12 players with that total or better. Special teams wise, these are the two best teams in the NHL with respect to playing with the man-advantage (25.2% and 21.8% respecitvely). Montreal is 12th in the league in killing penalties, while Washington is 25th. Goaltending is where this series takes an interesting turn, with Jaroslav Halak coming up against the tandem of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov. Halak played well in his 45 games this season, taking over the job from Carey Price, posting a .924 save percentage with 26 wins, while Theodore and Varlamov split time, neither looking particularly impressive (Theodore .911 save percentage, 30 wins, Varlamov .909 with 15 wins). I wouldn't rule out Les Habitants pulling the upset here, but I also wouldn't count on it. Capitals in 5 games.
2)NEW JERSEY DEVILS (48-27-7, 103 points) VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (41-35-6, 88 points)
- This is not going to be a long series, and if it is, shame on New Jersey. They've played the best trap hockey this season since their 2003 run to the Stanley Cup, and with Jacques Lemers (pioneer, innovator of the trap) behind the bench, this team should make quick work of a team starting Brian Boucher in net. They were the only team to allow less than 200 goals this season in the league. The question for the Devils remains the same as it has been in previous years: can Martin Broduer stand up to Cup Playoff pressure anymore? Last year, he clearly did not, giving up 2 huge goals at the end of game 7 to cough up the season. Even in 08 they lost in the 1st round to the New York Rangers. The Flyers, by all accounts, are seemingly the team just happy to be in, and so the expectations are relatively low. Last time the Flyers were in such a position, they made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2008. I'm by no means picking them to win, I'm merely hinting that the Devils armor is not as solid as it may seem. Devils in 6 games.
3) BUFFALO SABRES(45-27-10, 100 points) VS. 6) BOSTON BRUINS (39-30-13, 91 points)
- Both of these teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NHL in goals allowed this season, and this should be one hell of a physical battle. The story, and indeed the hope, of Buffalo is on the shoulders of Ryan Miller, the hero goaltender of team USA in Vancouver who fell just short. a .929 save percentage coupled with 41 wins puts him sqaurely in the debate not just for the Vezina trophy, but also the Hart. For Boston, their offense has been horrendous since losing Marc Savard to that brutal blind-side hit by Matt Cooke. They finished 30th in the NHL in goals for. One wouldn't hesitate to say that if Savard doesn't return in this series, and play well, Boston's goose may be cooked. With a shaky Tim Thomas (he won just 17 games this year after winning the Vezina last season) benched for Tukka Rask, this could be a quick series for Boston, especially if Miller gets hot. That's not to say Rask hasn't played well in relief, he simply will be out-dueled by a superior goaltender. Sabres in 5 games.
4) PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (47-28-7, 101 points) VS. 5) OTTAWA SENATORS (44-32-6, 94 points)
- This is certainly an interesting test for the defending champion Penguins in the first round. A top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Alex Kovalev is no picnic, and Bryan Elliot has been a solid starter for the Sens all season, after taking the reigns from an injured Pascal Leclaire. While his opponent in this series, Marc-Andre Fleury, did not have his best season (still compiled 37 wins with a .906 save percentage), this is clearly the time of year that this goaltender relishes. He is a playoff goaltender, and his M.O. is to win 4 games out of 7. He has won 7 of the last 8 series that he has been a part of, including some where he needed to stand completely on his head and make 40+ saves a night in order to win (e.g. game 3 of the Philly series, the save on Ovechkin in game 7 last season). Sidney Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year (who would've thought that when the regular season started), and is carrying this team, as always. This series matches up a team trying to put the pieces back together and compete again against a hardened champion, ready to defend their title. These two teams bring the fireworks in the playoffs, just think of those series 2 and 3 years ago. This should be an entertaining series, and the Sens will give the Pens more than they thought capable of Ottawa, but the champs will get it done. Penguins in 5 games.
1)WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-3, 121 points) VS. 8)MONTREAL CANADIENS (39-33-10, 88 points)
- This is the time Alexander Ovechkin has been waiting for: he wants vengeance against Crosby, the Penguins, and by proxy, the NHL at large after going down in flames last season. Other teams should duck and cover, and even then this Titanous lineup of Washington's seems overwhelming. Washington scored 101 more goals than Montreal this season, and no Canadien scored more than 30 goals (Washington has 3 30+ goal scorers). In addition, no Hab was over +11 for the season, while the Caps boast 12 players with that total or better. Special teams wise, these are the two best teams in the NHL with respect to playing with the man-advantage (25.2% and 21.8% respecitvely). Montreal is 12th in the league in killing penalties, while Washington is 25th. Goaltending is where this series takes an interesting turn, with Jaroslav Halak coming up against the tandem of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov. Halak played well in his 45 games this season, taking over the job from Carey Price, posting a .924 save percentage with 26 wins, while Theodore and Varlamov split time, neither looking particularly impressive (Theodore .911 save percentage, 30 wins, Varlamov .909 with 15 wins). I wouldn't rule out Les Habitants pulling the upset here, but I also wouldn't count on it. Capitals in 5 games.
2)NEW JERSEY DEVILS (48-27-7, 103 points) VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (41-35-6, 88 points)
- This is not going to be a long series, and if it is, shame on New Jersey. They've played the best trap hockey this season since their 2003 run to the Stanley Cup, and with Jacques Lemers (pioneer, innovator of the trap) behind the bench, this team should make quick work of a team starting Brian Boucher in net. They were the only team to allow less than 200 goals this season in the league. The question for the Devils remains the same as it has been in previous years: can Martin Broduer stand up to Cup Playoff pressure anymore? Last year, he clearly did not, giving up 2 huge goals at the end of game 7 to cough up the season. Even in 08 they lost in the 1st round to the New York Rangers. The Flyers, by all accounts, are seemingly the team just happy to be in, and so the expectations are relatively low. Last time the Flyers were in such a position, they made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2008. I'm by no means picking them to win, I'm merely hinting that the Devils armor is not as solid as it may seem. Devils in 6 games.
3) BUFFALO SABRES(45-27-10, 100 points) VS. 6) BOSTON BRUINS (39-30-13, 91 points)
- Both of these teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NHL in goals allowed this season, and this should be one hell of a physical battle. The story, and indeed the hope, of Buffalo is on the shoulders of Ryan Miller, the hero goaltender of team USA in Vancouver who fell just short. a .929 save percentage coupled with 41 wins puts him sqaurely in the debate not just for the Vezina trophy, but also the Hart. For Boston, their offense has been horrendous since losing Marc Savard to that brutal blind-side hit by Matt Cooke. They finished 30th in the NHL in goals for. One wouldn't hesitate to say that if Savard doesn't return in this series, and play well, Boston's goose may be cooked. With a shaky Tim Thomas (he won just 17 games this year after winning the Vezina last season) benched for Tukka Rask, this could be a quick series for Boston, especially if Miller gets hot. That's not to say Rask hasn't played well in relief, he simply will be out-dueled by a superior goaltender. Sabres in 5 games.
4) PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (47-28-7, 101 points) VS. 5) OTTAWA SENATORS (44-32-6, 94 points)
- This is certainly an interesting test for the defending champion Penguins in the first round. A top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Alex Kovalev is no picnic, and Bryan Elliot has been a solid starter for the Sens all season, after taking the reigns from an injured Pascal Leclaire. While his opponent in this series, Marc-Andre Fleury, did not have his best season (still compiled 37 wins with a .906 save percentage), this is clearly the time of year that this goaltender relishes. He is a playoff goaltender, and his M.O. is to win 4 games out of 7. He has won 7 of the last 8 series that he has been a part of, including some where he needed to stand completely on his head and make 40+ saves a night in order to win (e.g. game 3 of the Philly series, the save on Ovechkin in game 7 last season). Sidney Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year (who would've thought that when the regular season started), and is carrying this team, as always. This series matches up a team trying to put the pieces back together and compete again against a hardened champion, ready to defend their title. These two teams bring the fireworks in the playoffs, just think of those series 2 and 3 years ago. This should be an entertaining series, and the Sens will give the Pens more than they thought capable of Ottawa, but the champs will get it done. Penguins in 5 games.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
A Return for the playoffs: Final day matchups determine seeding
It's good to be back in the fold after taking an Olympic break myself for the month of March. The NHL is on its final Sunday, and now is as good a time as any to return and analyze. So, let's go around the league this final sunday, starting with the east coast bias that is Ovechkin on NBC, and then on to the showdown of Philly and New York for that final spot in the East. Some of the other games are for seeding (LA/Colorado and Chicago/Detroit), so we'll focus on just 2 games from today's schedule that give an overall feel for the season finale because the rest of the games don't mean a thing (Edmonton/Anaheim, Tampa Bay/Florida, Buffalo/New Jersey, Pittsburgh/New York Islanders).
BOSTON BRUINS (Currently 38-30-18, 6th place in the East) VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-12, best record in hockey, clinched the President's trophy)
- This game, more or less, means nothing to either team than a simple tune up for the playoffs. Boston is a team limping into the playoffs, and if their record is any indication (their 89 points is not even enough to be in 10th place out West), they just want to get healthy, and maybe get some kind of momentum going into the big dance. When Zdeno Chara leads your team in assists (37) and is third on the team in points (44), you know that your offense is struggling, to say the least. This team is aching to get Marc Savard back for the playoffs (his 33 points in 41 games is the closest any Bruin comes to a point-a-game pace). They are not necessarily struggling, going 6-3-1 in their last 10, but when you are locked in with the playoff opponent Boston is (they are locked in to a match up with the Buffalo Sabres and Ryan Miller), you want to be scoring more goals. Their 202 goal total for the year is 30th in the NHL.
For the Caps, this game is again, a tune up. They've been playing these types of games for weeks, like many teams do when they lock up the President's Trophy in early fashion. This is purely a momentum game for them. They're running with a 5 game win streak, seemingly getting hot at the right time with a big 6-3 win over Pittsburgh (the first time in Ovechkin's young career that he has gotten the better of Sidney Crosby and his mates). Conversely, their 315 goals is 1st in the NHL this season, and no other team even comes close on offense this year (Vancouver is 2nd with 272, almost 50 goals less). If I were a Caps fan, I would hope Ovechkin doesn't do something stupid and get himself suspended for the first couple of games, and even that is a long shot as Boudreau surely won't be double-shifting Ovie today. It will be tough for them not to have their eyes on New York and Philly later today, with one of those teams being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss today.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (40-35-6, 8th in the East) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (38-33-10, 9th in the East)
- It's games like these that make me wish NBC does for the NHL what it does for the NFL: flex scheduling so that important games like this one can be seen nationally. What could be better for the NHL on a season finale day than to have the Flyers and Rangers battling for the final playoff spot? But instead, they picked Washington/Boston at the beginning of the year and are stuck with that snooze fest of a game. If the Flyers win, and it doesnt matter if it goes to overtime or not, they will be the 7th seed in the East and meet the New Jersey Devils in the first round. If the Rangers win, however, they would meet Ovechkin's Capitals as the number 8 seed. For the Flyers of late, winners of just 3 of their last 10, they are indeed backing in, or perhaps out, of the playoffs. If they want answers, just look the the 3rd best power play unit in hockey this year (21.5%). If this game becomes a slug fest, which it might considering the implications and these teams past history, the Rangers might be able to take that special-teams element out of the game, or at least out of the forefront. The Flyers have, by all accounts, underachieved this season (Richards only 62 points, Carter with 60, and Pronger in 3rd on the team with 55), and if they were to lose this game, many people would question the move earlier in the year to fire then coach John Stevens and replace him with Peter Laviolette. Compound that with the fact that the Flyers are likely starting Brian Boucher today due to the rash of goaltending injuries, and Flyer fans must have already hit the panic button. The Rangers, on the other hand, are red-hot coming into today's game, winning 7 of their last 10, and 9 of their last 13. Other than Marian Gaborik, who has 86 points in 75 games, the Rangers do not immediately boast any kind of offensive advantage over Philly, although the forward did score the winning goal in these teams last meeting on Friday, a 4-3 Rangers win that set up this dramatic showdown.
BOSTON BRUINS (Currently 38-30-18, 6th place in the East) VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-12, best record in hockey, clinched the President's trophy)
- This game, more or less, means nothing to either team than a simple tune up for the playoffs. Boston is a team limping into the playoffs, and if their record is any indication (their 89 points is not even enough to be in 10th place out West), they just want to get healthy, and maybe get some kind of momentum going into the big dance. When Zdeno Chara leads your team in assists (37) and is third on the team in points (44), you know that your offense is struggling, to say the least. This team is aching to get Marc Savard back for the playoffs (his 33 points in 41 games is the closest any Bruin comes to a point-a-game pace). They are not necessarily struggling, going 6-3-1 in their last 10, but when you are locked in with the playoff opponent Boston is (they are locked in to a match up with the Buffalo Sabres and Ryan Miller), you want to be scoring more goals. Their 202 goal total for the year is 30th in the NHL.
For the Caps, this game is again, a tune up. They've been playing these types of games for weeks, like many teams do when they lock up the President's Trophy in early fashion. This is purely a momentum game for them. They're running with a 5 game win streak, seemingly getting hot at the right time with a big 6-3 win over Pittsburgh (the first time in Ovechkin's young career that he has gotten the better of Sidney Crosby and his mates). Conversely, their 315 goals is 1st in the NHL this season, and no other team even comes close on offense this year (Vancouver is 2nd with 272, almost 50 goals less). If I were a Caps fan, I would hope Ovechkin doesn't do something stupid and get himself suspended for the first couple of games, and even that is a long shot as Boudreau surely won't be double-shifting Ovie today. It will be tough for them not to have their eyes on New York and Philly later today, with one of those teams being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss today.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (40-35-6, 8th in the East) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (38-33-10, 9th in the East)
- It's games like these that make me wish NBC does for the NHL what it does for the NFL: flex scheduling so that important games like this one can be seen nationally. What could be better for the NHL on a season finale day than to have the Flyers and Rangers battling for the final playoff spot? But instead, they picked Washington/Boston at the beginning of the year and are stuck with that snooze fest of a game. If the Flyers win, and it doesnt matter if it goes to overtime or not, they will be the 7th seed in the East and meet the New Jersey Devils in the first round. If the Rangers win, however, they would meet Ovechkin's Capitals as the number 8 seed. For the Flyers of late, winners of just 3 of their last 10, they are indeed backing in, or perhaps out, of the playoffs. If they want answers, just look the the 3rd best power play unit in hockey this year (21.5%). If this game becomes a slug fest, which it might considering the implications and these teams past history, the Rangers might be able to take that special-teams element out of the game, or at least out of the forefront. The Flyers have, by all accounts, underachieved this season (Richards only 62 points, Carter with 60, and Pronger in 3rd on the team with 55), and if they were to lose this game, many people would question the move earlier in the year to fire then coach John Stevens and replace him with Peter Laviolette. Compound that with the fact that the Flyers are likely starting Brian Boucher today due to the rash of goaltending injuries, and Flyer fans must have already hit the panic button. The Rangers, on the other hand, are red-hot coming into today's game, winning 7 of their last 10, and 9 of their last 13. Other than Marian Gaborik, who has 86 points in 75 games, the Rangers do not immediately boast any kind of offensive advantage over Philly, although the forward did score the winning goal in these teams last meeting on Friday, a 4-3 Rangers win that set up this dramatic showdown.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Trades of the day
Now that the rosters have been unfrozen, some deals have been made. Expect a ton more as the trade deadline is on Wednesday. Here are the deals and analysis:
- Pittsburgh Penguins trade a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft to the Florida Panthers for Defenseman Jordan Leopold.
- Edmonton Oilers trade Defenseman Denis Grebeshkov to the Nashville Predators for a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft.
- Leopold has 7 goals and 11 assists in 61 games for the Panthers. He is also -7. Expect his numbers to drastically improve on a Pens roster with more than enough talent to complement Leopold's offensive skills. The Penguins are looking to improve their power play (currently 26th in the league at a pedestrian 16.5%), and the addition of Leopold may be a shot in the arm for this team.
- Nashville gets significantly deeper on the back end and don't give up that much to get Grebeshkov, who currently has 6 goals and 13 assists in 47 games this season for the Oilers. The Oilers will be big sellers at the deadline, and they have some talent that a team on the playoff bubble could make an offer for players like Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, or Sheldon Souray. Grebeshkov is a -16, but attribute much of that to how awful the Oilers are defensively. There are only 5 Oiler starters with a +/- rating above 0 (Hemsky +7, Smid +5, Stone +2, Stortini +2, Penner +2). Nashville's Power Play is around 16.7% for the season, so like Pittsburgh, Nashville wants this to be a shot in the arm for a unit with more than enough talent to get the job done with the extra man. With only 165 goals on the season, expect Nashville to continue to shop around for offensive talent, and if this trade is any indication, they will trade assets if they feel the Predators are a better team as a result of whatever deal is made.
- Pittsburgh Penguins trade a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft to the Florida Panthers for Defenseman Jordan Leopold.
- Edmonton Oilers trade Defenseman Denis Grebeshkov to the Nashville Predators for a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft.
- Leopold has 7 goals and 11 assists in 61 games for the Panthers. He is also -7. Expect his numbers to drastically improve on a Pens roster with more than enough talent to complement Leopold's offensive skills. The Penguins are looking to improve their power play (currently 26th in the league at a pedestrian 16.5%), and the addition of Leopold may be a shot in the arm for this team.
- Nashville gets significantly deeper on the back end and don't give up that much to get Grebeshkov, who currently has 6 goals and 13 assists in 47 games this season for the Oilers. The Oilers will be big sellers at the deadline, and they have some talent that a team on the playoff bubble could make an offer for players like Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, or Sheldon Souray. Grebeshkov is a -16, but attribute much of that to how awful the Oilers are defensively. There are only 5 Oiler starters with a +/- rating above 0 (Hemsky +7, Smid +5, Stone +2, Stortini +2, Penner +2). Nashville's Power Play is around 16.7% for the season, so like Pittsburgh, Nashville wants this to be a shot in the arm for a unit with more than enough talent to get the job done with the extra man. With only 165 goals on the season, expect Nashville to continue to shop around for offensive talent, and if this trade is any indication, they will trade assets if they feel the Predators are a better team as a result of whatever deal is made.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
The Time for Gold Draws Near: USA VS. CANADA, 1:15 Mountain
So here we are, the exact match up of a week ago, only now for all the marbles. Before I break into the statistical breakdown of this game, I'd like to briefly examine the social environment of this game from both sides. For the Canadians, this is as big as it gets on a national stage, and the consensus from them is one of confidence heading into this game, carried with the usual lack of respect for American hockey. That lack of respect is not entirely unfounded, and exists today as American apathy and ignorance towards hockey (for instance, some of my friends say things like ,"I haven't followed hockey since the strike" and, "I don't know any of the players anymore"). Canadian fans certainly do not want to see a country that clearly does not love hockey as much as it does win the Gold medal on their ice.
And on the other side of that coin, the American fans are confident, and almost cocky, heading into this game. The majority of Americans watching this game, to quote Al Michaels, "don't know the difference between a blue line and a clothes lines." They certainly feel that all the pressure is on the Canadians, especially after squeezing out a 3-2 win against the Slovaks on Friday. A lot of American hockey fans, myself included, feel that Canada never recognizes our attention, dedication to and love for the game. Alas, hockey fans are marginalized in this country, and ignorance seems to be the general trend of the American casual hockey fan (i.e. few fans of the Colorado Avalanche knew who Craig Anderson was before the start of the 2009-2010 season). Now that, in some semblance, the rivalry has been explained, I will now move on to analyze the game.
It is often said that the winner of an Olympic hockey tournament is the team with the best goaltender (a la Dominick Hasek in Nagano 1998). There is no question at this point who the best goaltender in this tournament is, and simply put, its Miller Time. Ryan Miller leads all goaltenders in the Olympics with a crazy .953 save percentage and an equally stunning 1.04 GAA. Roberto Luongo, his opponent in this game, has a .919 save percentage with a 1.75 GAA. Last Sunday, Miller made 43 saves against Martin Brodeur's 17 (on 22 shots, ouch). Regardless, the goaltender who should be starting here isn't, and won't see any ice time at these olympics (despite being on the roster and many other teams deploying 3 different goalies in the tournament, Mike Babcock seems to be holding a grudge against Marc-Andre Fleury for stone walling his Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, but this rant is for another day). I expect the shot chart to look much the same, and Miller will need another Herculean effort today.
The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether or not the Americans get into penalty trouble, since their PK for the tournament has been a questionable 76.9%. The United States, however, has taken the least amount of penalties (13 in five games) of any team in this tournament, so they have been at least disciplined. Canada has given up one less power play goal than the US (3 to 2), and have the best PK in the tournament with an 88.24%. Power play wise, these two teams are just about as efficient as the other (Canada's 29.17% to USA's 28.57). If Canada gets on the advantage, this is certainly an area where they might dominate(their blue line has 27 points in 6 games, America's has only 12 from two players in 5 games). Look out for Shea Weber's bomb from the point that he literally put through the net in the play-in game against Germany.
Interestingly, the Americans have taken almost 100 less shots than the Canadians (155 in 5 games to 243 in 6 games), and have been much more opportune in that regard. Percentage wise, in terms of scoring efficiency, both teams are shooting around 15%(Canada 13.17, USA 14.19). Canada's 32 goals in the tournament are tops, America's 22 (tied with Slovakia) are second best. These teams will score given the chance. Offensive X factors include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Malone (not a dynamo, but if he scores it motivates his team).
On the defensive side, the US has given up just 6 goals in 5 games, while Canada has given up 14. The unit in red, white and blue is much more stout physically than Canada's, and while at once not as offensively gifted, they will hit you in the mouth without hesitation. The United States has played much more physically than any other team in this tournament, and if the trends continue today (Miller as a brick wall, USA as an opportune team, a little too much pressure on Canada), the Americans will have their first Gold in 30 years. However, I must stick with my guns, I've been harping on Canada as the gold winner for three weeks now, and I see them getting the job done today, 4-3.
And on the other side of that coin, the American fans are confident, and almost cocky, heading into this game. The majority of Americans watching this game, to quote Al Michaels, "don't know the difference between a blue line and a clothes lines." They certainly feel that all the pressure is on the Canadians, especially after squeezing out a 3-2 win against the Slovaks on Friday. A lot of American hockey fans, myself included, feel that Canada never recognizes our attention, dedication to and love for the game. Alas, hockey fans are marginalized in this country, and ignorance seems to be the general trend of the American casual hockey fan (i.e. few fans of the Colorado Avalanche knew who Craig Anderson was before the start of the 2009-2010 season). Now that, in some semblance, the rivalry has been explained, I will now move on to analyze the game.
It is often said that the winner of an Olympic hockey tournament is the team with the best goaltender (a la Dominick Hasek in Nagano 1998). There is no question at this point who the best goaltender in this tournament is, and simply put, its Miller Time. Ryan Miller leads all goaltenders in the Olympics with a crazy .953 save percentage and an equally stunning 1.04 GAA. Roberto Luongo, his opponent in this game, has a .919 save percentage with a 1.75 GAA. Last Sunday, Miller made 43 saves against Martin Brodeur's 17 (on 22 shots, ouch). Regardless, the goaltender who should be starting here isn't, and won't see any ice time at these olympics (despite being on the roster and many other teams deploying 3 different goalies in the tournament, Mike Babcock seems to be holding a grudge against Marc-Andre Fleury for stone walling his Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, but this rant is for another day). I expect the shot chart to look much the same, and Miller will need another Herculean effort today.
The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether or not the Americans get into penalty trouble, since their PK for the tournament has been a questionable 76.9%. The United States, however, has taken the least amount of penalties (13 in five games) of any team in this tournament, so they have been at least disciplined. Canada has given up one less power play goal than the US (3 to 2), and have the best PK in the tournament with an 88.24%. Power play wise, these two teams are just about as efficient as the other (Canada's 29.17% to USA's 28.57). If Canada gets on the advantage, this is certainly an area where they might dominate(their blue line has 27 points in 6 games, America's has only 12 from two players in 5 games). Look out for Shea Weber's bomb from the point that he literally put through the net in the play-in game against Germany.
Interestingly, the Americans have taken almost 100 less shots than the Canadians (155 in 5 games to 243 in 6 games), and have been much more opportune in that regard. Percentage wise, in terms of scoring efficiency, both teams are shooting around 15%(Canada 13.17, USA 14.19). Canada's 32 goals in the tournament are tops, America's 22 (tied with Slovakia) are second best. These teams will score given the chance. Offensive X factors include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Malone (not a dynamo, but if he scores it motivates his team).
On the defensive side, the US has given up just 6 goals in 5 games, while Canada has given up 14. The unit in red, white and blue is much more stout physically than Canada's, and while at once not as offensively gifted, they will hit you in the mouth without hesitation. The United States has played much more physically than any other team in this tournament, and if the trends continue today (Miller as a brick wall, USA as an opportune team, a little too much pressure on Canada), the Americans will have their first Gold in 30 years. However, I must stick with my guns, I've been harping on Canada as the gold winner for three weeks now, and I see them getting the job done today, 4-3.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Super Tuesday in Vancouver
For those expected to win yesterday in the preliminary round of the tournament there were no surprises. Some of the teams cut it a little close, but we'll still get, for the most part, power house match ups today. Tonight will be the biggest international confrontation between Russia and Canada since the Canada Cup in the late 80s. The hockey world is already buzzing at the thought of this game, and in some respects, this is much more tantalizing than an All-Star Game. The fact of the matter is, whoever loses does not medal, a prospect hockey pundits would've scoffed at merely a week ago, myself included. But that precisely is the magic of these Olympic games. Ovechkin/Crosby is gonna be good tonight, needless to say. Here, as usual, is my analysis of the games yesterday and today.
YESTERDAY:
SWITZERLAND 4, BELARUS 3 (SHOOTOUT)
- An interesting game considering the Swiss gave up 3 goals to the Belorussians. Their defense is good, no doubt, but one would have thought that this game would come a little easier for the Swiss. Word at the beginning of these games is that the Swiss want a medal. Not good news for them now that they have to play an extremely confident USA squad, but that was to be expected, considering their seeding. Belarus gave a solid effort at the Olympics, and if you're a country like Belarus, this is really all you'll be able to accomplish against super teams from the NHL.
CANADA 8, GERMANY 2
- This is pretty much what everyone expected would happen. Canada will play the rest of this tournament with a chip on their shoulders, and Roberto Luongo in net it looks like. Great team that just got upset hands it to a team that just can't keep up. Not much else here to consider except that Canada now has a top line of Eric Staal, Sidney Crosby, and Jarome Iginla. This team looked a lot more complete than they did against the USA team, but that was to be expected.
CZECH REPUBLIC 4, LATVIA 3 (OVERTIME)
- This was the big surprise on a day of otherwise fulfilled expectations. The Czechs should have won this game, and they were resiliant when they had to be, especially in the latter portion of the third period and moving into OT. However, that doesn't excuse the fact that they were playing Latvia, and any such lapses in scoring touch will put them in a quick hole against their next opponent Finland. If Kipprusoff stands on his head the way Latvia's Edgars Masalskis did last night, the Czechs will find themselves out of Vancouver shortly.
SLOVAKIA 4, NORWAY 3
- This is eerily similar to their rivals game aginst the Latvians. Norway's goalie wasn't particularly hot, the Slovaks just really wanted to lose this game, it felt like. Sure, they held the fort at the end, but they were playing one of the worst teams in the tournament and it should've been over long before that. If they come with the same lackadaisical effort against the Swedes, they'll get blown out. Even if they don't they might get blown out.
TODAY:
1:00- #1 USA VS. #8 SWITZERLAND
- This is precisely what the USA earned with its win over the Canadians on Sunday: the right to play a lower seeded team. The ball is in the Americans court to get to the gold medal game, at least. Their road is by far the easiest of any team in the tournament, as it should be for a top seed. Don't expect this to be as close as their 3-1 game in pool play. Even if Jonas Hiller is a wall, don't expect the Swiss offense to do much against the physical, smart American defense (they played with much more intelligence against Canada). The USA will win at least 4-1, and advance to play either Finland or the Czech Republic in the Semi-Finals.
5:30- #3 RUSSIA VS. #6 CANADA
- This game is going to be huge. Consequently, I will run through the offenses and defenses in this game, as well as analyze the goaltending and special teams of both teams. This is a game with social and even political implications for both countries. Both countries don't just want Gold like the Americans do, they expect it (a la USA basketball). And one of them will not medal. This is by far the biggest international rivalry going at this time, much to the shagrin of American fans.
WHEN RUSSIA ATTACKS: Look for quick puck movement between the shifty Russian forwards as they attempt to navigate around an all-star defense. Malkin will lead the way though, not Ovechkin as he lead the team in points in pool play. When not on the rush, look for the Russians to attempt to get as much traffic in front of Roberto Luongo as they can. When on the rush, the Russians will be trying to make Luongo move around in his crease and test his quickness. The Canadians will be physical with the Russians much more so than they were with the Americans. The depth of Canada's defensemen trumps the depth of the Russian forwards. EDGE: EVEN
WHEN CANADA ATTACKS: This team almost banked on the American defense jumping up into plays to create counter-attack oppurtunities on Sunday. The Americans didn't, and the Canadians lost. The Russian defenders are good, but not good enough to contain this roster unless they put forth a supreme effort as they are no where near as deep as the Americans. Canada will continue to do what it has done all tournament: work along the side boards to create chances, whether by working them down low into the slot, or passing it back to guys like Shea Weber who can literally put the puck through the net (incredible play from last night's game with the Germans). If Crosby works the sideboards all game, look out as his outlets from there are either Jarome Iginla or the aforementioned Weber. And Russia's defense may not be good enough, or fast enough, to keep up. EDGE: CANADA
RUSSIAN GOALTENDER: EVGENI NABOKOV
- In this tournament, Nabby is 3-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA. He's been good when he has had to be. But the team he's facing tonight is a horse of a complete different color. An interesting note, however, is that Nabokov plays for the San Jose Sharks, and faces Canada's Heatley-Thornton-Marleau line every day in practice. He may have it in him to stand in his head tonight and pull out a win, do not count him out.
CANADIAN GOALTENDER: ROBERTO LUONGO
- Luongo, while facing decidedly lower competition in Norway and Germany, is in the shape one would expect with a .947 save percentage and a 1.00 GAA. What goes for Nabokov goes for Roberto as well, this is a super team Canada is facing tonight, even more talented than the Americans. He can easily stand on his head, and tonight should not be a big problem for him. However, if Russia gets in his head early and makes it 2-0 (just a random score), that is when Luongo can struggle to win games. If Russia gets in his head early, they have a much better chance to win.
EDGE: CANADA
WHEN RUSSIA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- Look for them to go with the Pittsburgh Penguin attack that they have been of playing Gonchar at the point and having Malkin up there as well and letting those two quarterback. Canada, though, knows how to play against that (or at least Crosby and Fleury do). The talent level for both teams is so high that even a one man advantage is huge. Both powerplays, if given the chance, should light the lamp. EDGE: RUSSIA
WHEN CANADA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- This powerplay could be compared to a weapon of mass destruction. That's how good they are. That said, they cannot wait to get the powerplay unit working until late in the third, as they did on Sunday. Crosby has to step up, and usually, when that's the case, he does. They have the better powerplay of the two teams, and they need to exploit one of the only advantages they are going to get against this Russian team. EDGE: CANADA
PICK
- This game could be one for the ages. These are two titans at the heights of their powers going at it. Ovechkin/Crosby will be the main focus I'm sure, and that will only make it a little easier for these teams to hate eachother, if they don't already. This is going to be a fantastic game, and I see the Canadians winning in overtime 5-4.
8:00- #4 FINLAND VS. #5 CZECH REPUBLIC
- Tough act to follow, to say the least. However, this game should provide plenty of drama as both teams can score, both can defend, and both can hit. Jaromir Jagr is still not 100% after taking that bomb of a hit from Alexander Ovechkin on Sunday, and his health is huge variable for this Czech team. Goaltending is the quesiton in this game, as Tomas Vokoun was shaky against the Latvians yesterday and Mikka Kipprusoff looked really questionable against the Swedes on Sunday night. The onus is on Finland to take control of this game and move on to the semis, which I think they will with a grind-it-out 3-2 win over the Czechs.
10:00- #2 SWEDEN VS. #7 SLOVAKIA
- Good way to end a full day of great games. Sweden's offense has not looked as impressive as it has in previous years (aging Peter Forsberg, Daniel Alfredsson, Niclas Lidstrom, no Mats Sundin). That is the one hope Slovakia has to win this game. They need a sub par effort from Sweden's scorers to even have a chance. Their effort against Norway was complete garbage, and they are lucky to be here. They could prove me wrong and play a fantastic game tonight (the pieces are certainly there). For Sweden, they just need to score 3 or 4 goals. If they score, they'll win with Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes.
-Since all my picks from the first round held true, I don't need to update my speculation bracket. Yet.
YESTERDAY:
SWITZERLAND 4, BELARUS 3 (SHOOTOUT)
- An interesting game considering the Swiss gave up 3 goals to the Belorussians. Their defense is good, no doubt, but one would have thought that this game would come a little easier for the Swiss. Word at the beginning of these games is that the Swiss want a medal. Not good news for them now that they have to play an extremely confident USA squad, but that was to be expected, considering their seeding. Belarus gave a solid effort at the Olympics, and if you're a country like Belarus, this is really all you'll be able to accomplish against super teams from the NHL.
CANADA 8, GERMANY 2
- This is pretty much what everyone expected would happen. Canada will play the rest of this tournament with a chip on their shoulders, and Roberto Luongo in net it looks like. Great team that just got upset hands it to a team that just can't keep up. Not much else here to consider except that Canada now has a top line of Eric Staal, Sidney Crosby, and Jarome Iginla. This team looked a lot more complete than they did against the USA team, but that was to be expected.
CZECH REPUBLIC 4, LATVIA 3 (OVERTIME)
- This was the big surprise on a day of otherwise fulfilled expectations. The Czechs should have won this game, and they were resiliant when they had to be, especially in the latter portion of the third period and moving into OT. However, that doesn't excuse the fact that they were playing Latvia, and any such lapses in scoring touch will put them in a quick hole against their next opponent Finland. If Kipprusoff stands on his head the way Latvia's Edgars Masalskis did last night, the Czechs will find themselves out of Vancouver shortly.
SLOVAKIA 4, NORWAY 3
- This is eerily similar to their rivals game aginst the Latvians. Norway's goalie wasn't particularly hot, the Slovaks just really wanted to lose this game, it felt like. Sure, they held the fort at the end, but they were playing one of the worst teams in the tournament and it should've been over long before that. If they come with the same lackadaisical effort against the Swedes, they'll get blown out. Even if they don't they might get blown out.
TODAY:
1:00- #1 USA VS. #8 SWITZERLAND
- This is precisely what the USA earned with its win over the Canadians on Sunday: the right to play a lower seeded team. The ball is in the Americans court to get to the gold medal game, at least. Their road is by far the easiest of any team in the tournament, as it should be for a top seed. Don't expect this to be as close as their 3-1 game in pool play. Even if Jonas Hiller is a wall, don't expect the Swiss offense to do much against the physical, smart American defense (they played with much more intelligence against Canada). The USA will win at least 4-1, and advance to play either Finland or the Czech Republic in the Semi-Finals.
5:30- #3 RUSSIA VS. #6 CANADA
- This game is going to be huge. Consequently, I will run through the offenses and defenses in this game, as well as analyze the goaltending and special teams of both teams. This is a game with social and even political implications for both countries. Both countries don't just want Gold like the Americans do, they expect it (a la USA basketball). And one of them will not medal. This is by far the biggest international rivalry going at this time, much to the shagrin of American fans.
WHEN RUSSIA ATTACKS: Look for quick puck movement between the shifty Russian forwards as they attempt to navigate around an all-star defense. Malkin will lead the way though, not Ovechkin as he lead the team in points in pool play. When not on the rush, look for the Russians to attempt to get as much traffic in front of Roberto Luongo as they can. When on the rush, the Russians will be trying to make Luongo move around in his crease and test his quickness. The Canadians will be physical with the Russians much more so than they were with the Americans. The depth of Canada's defensemen trumps the depth of the Russian forwards. EDGE: EVEN
WHEN CANADA ATTACKS: This team almost banked on the American defense jumping up into plays to create counter-attack oppurtunities on Sunday. The Americans didn't, and the Canadians lost. The Russian defenders are good, but not good enough to contain this roster unless they put forth a supreme effort as they are no where near as deep as the Americans. Canada will continue to do what it has done all tournament: work along the side boards to create chances, whether by working them down low into the slot, or passing it back to guys like Shea Weber who can literally put the puck through the net (incredible play from last night's game with the Germans). If Crosby works the sideboards all game, look out as his outlets from there are either Jarome Iginla or the aforementioned Weber. And Russia's defense may not be good enough, or fast enough, to keep up. EDGE: CANADA
RUSSIAN GOALTENDER: EVGENI NABOKOV
- In this tournament, Nabby is 3-0 with a .911 save percentage and a 2.00 GAA. He's been good when he has had to be. But the team he's facing tonight is a horse of a complete different color. An interesting note, however, is that Nabokov plays for the San Jose Sharks, and faces Canada's Heatley-Thornton-Marleau line every day in practice. He may have it in him to stand in his head tonight and pull out a win, do not count him out.
CANADIAN GOALTENDER: ROBERTO LUONGO
- Luongo, while facing decidedly lower competition in Norway and Germany, is in the shape one would expect with a .947 save percentage and a 1.00 GAA. What goes for Nabokov goes for Roberto as well, this is a super team Canada is facing tonight, even more talented than the Americans. He can easily stand on his head, and tonight should not be a big problem for him. However, if Russia gets in his head early and makes it 2-0 (just a random score), that is when Luongo can struggle to win games. If Russia gets in his head early, they have a much better chance to win.
EDGE: CANADA
WHEN RUSSIA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- Look for them to go with the Pittsburgh Penguin attack that they have been of playing Gonchar at the point and having Malkin up there as well and letting those two quarterback. Canada, though, knows how to play against that (or at least Crosby and Fleury do). The talent level for both teams is so high that even a one man advantage is huge. Both powerplays, if given the chance, should light the lamp. EDGE: RUSSIA
WHEN CANADA IS ON THE POWERPLAY:
- This powerplay could be compared to a weapon of mass destruction. That's how good they are. That said, they cannot wait to get the powerplay unit working until late in the third, as they did on Sunday. Crosby has to step up, and usually, when that's the case, he does. They have the better powerplay of the two teams, and they need to exploit one of the only advantages they are going to get against this Russian team. EDGE: CANADA
PICK
- This game could be one for the ages. These are two titans at the heights of their powers going at it. Ovechkin/Crosby will be the main focus I'm sure, and that will only make it a little easier for these teams to hate eachother, if they don't already. This is going to be a fantastic game, and I see the Canadians winning in overtime 5-4.
8:00- #4 FINLAND VS. #5 CZECH REPUBLIC
- Tough act to follow, to say the least. However, this game should provide plenty of drama as both teams can score, both can defend, and both can hit. Jaromir Jagr is still not 100% after taking that bomb of a hit from Alexander Ovechkin on Sunday, and his health is huge variable for this Czech team. Goaltending is the quesiton in this game, as Tomas Vokoun was shaky against the Latvians yesterday and Mikka Kipprusoff looked really questionable against the Swedes on Sunday night. The onus is on Finland to take control of this game and move on to the semis, which I think they will with a grind-it-out 3-2 win over the Czechs.
10:00- #2 SWEDEN VS. #7 SLOVAKIA
- Good way to end a full day of great games. Sweden's offense has not looked as impressive as it has in previous years (aging Peter Forsberg, Daniel Alfredsson, Niclas Lidstrom, no Mats Sundin). That is the one hope Slovakia has to win this game. They need a sub par effort from Sweden's scorers to even have a chance. Their effort against Norway was complete garbage, and they are lucky to be here. They could prove me wrong and play a fantastic game tonight (the pieces are certainly there). For Sweden, they just need to score 3 or 4 goals. If they score, they'll win with Henrik Lundqvist between the pipes.
-Since all my picks from the first round held true, I don't need to update my speculation bracket. Yet.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Commentary on Sunday's games and look ahead to medal round
The moniker "Super Sunday" seemed appropriate in describing the hockey action in Vancouver yesterday. Russia and the Czech Republic battled it out to determine the winner of group B, while Sweden and Finland renewed hostilities to determine the winner of that group. Russia showcased its talent, and Evgeni Malkin wants a little recognition (it seems he will always be under either Crosby or Ovechkin's shadow) with 3 points yesterday, including a huge goal on the powerplay. Sweden showed that Finland may not be as good as the Finns might think. Kipprusoff looked shakey at times last night in goal, but his defense was of little to no help. They should be grateful that they were able to pull out a first round bye, despite losing. But obviously, yesterday was about the huge upset of team Canada by the young guns of the United States. This was the biggest upset for team USA in some time, some would say their biggest since beating the USSR in 1980 in Lake Placid. However, such a comparison is ridiculous and carried no weight. Their upset was big, no doubt about that (it even got casual American sports fans talking about hockey, as shocking as it may seem). But to compare it to the biggest upset in the history of sports (I think its more like the 96 world championships, the last time the USA beat Canada) ignores the fact that the United States' roster is now comprised entirely of elite NHL talent, not the college kids that took on the highly trained and experienced Soviet squad back in 1980 who had beaten NHL teams, including NHL all-star teams. That's not to say the win wasn't exciting, as beating Canada without Mike Komisarek or Paul Martin speaks volumes about the depth of the USA team. They are now the top seed. The onus is on America to take care of business in what would otherwise be called an easy route to the gold medal game. Sunday was everything any hockey fan could have wanted to see. Here's the breakdown of the bracket's first round, game by game, and a quick overview of how I see the whole tournament going.
FEB 23-
1:00- #8 SWITZERLAND VS. #9 BELARUS (WINNER PLAYS #1 USA)
- This is an interesting matchup of lower teams, with the Swiss being the more defensive minded (and having an NHL goalie in Jonas Hiller) team and the Belarussians the more offensive. However, these games often come down to holding the defensive fort and not allowing the other team to score late in the game. Switzerland is simply the better team in this case (they held the USA to 3 goals and took Canada to a shootout). Switzerland moves on, 2-0 to get another crack at the Americans.
5:30- #6 CANADA VS. #11 GERMANY (WINNER PLAYS #3 RUSSIA)
- Canada has really put themselves in an awkward position with the way they finished pool play. They did not want to see Russia until the gold medal game, much less the quarterfinals, but they have only themselves to blame for not putting away Switzerland as they should have and not matching the grit of the Americans. Goaltending is in question now for Canada, do you stick with Brodeur, who hasn't looked good at all, or go with Roberto Luongo, who shut out Norway. The shocker in this case would be if Mike Babcock decides to ride the most clutch goalie he has into the tournament in Marc-Andre Fleury. This game is a no brainer for Canada, don't expect it to be close as they'll want to bounce back from that heartbreaker against the USA. Canada is loaded, Germany isn't. 6-0 at least. Let the pandamonium that will be Canada Vs. Russia ensue.
8:00- #5 CZECH REPUBLIC VS. #12 LATVIA (WINNER PLAYS #4 FINLAND)
- These two teams have already played once, with the Czechs taking a 5-2 win. Not much will change, except the margin might get a little bigger. The Czechs have it, and will take it easily. Finland and the Czechs should be a surprisingly good game.
10:00- #7 SLOVAKIA VS. #11 NORWAY (WINNER PLAYS #2 SWEDEN)
- The last two games on the first day of medal round play certainly don't look to have much excitement. These will be blowouts, and Norway hasn't really been able to show any adversity so far in this tourny. Watch for Norway to try to play dirty, as it did against the USA, in order to try to win. They won't, though.
SPECULATION TIME:
- Here, I'll pick the rest of the bracket. At the end of the tournament, everyone can look back at how wrong I was (My gold medal game was Russia Vs. Canada, thats already wrong).
USA/SWITZERLAND- USA WINS 5-1
FINLAND/CZECH REPUBLIC- FINLAND WINS 4-3
SWEDEN/SLOVAKIA- SWEDEN WINS 5-2
CANADA/RUSSIA- CANADA WINS 5-4
USA/FINLAND- USA WINS 3-1
SWEDEN/CANADA- CANADA WINS 4-2
BRONZE GAME:
FINLAND/SWEDEN- SWEDEN WINS 2-1
GOLD GAME:
USA/CANADA- CANADA WINS 4-3
FEB 23-
1:00- #8 SWITZERLAND VS. #9 BELARUS (WINNER PLAYS #1 USA)
- This is an interesting matchup of lower teams, with the Swiss being the more defensive minded (and having an NHL goalie in Jonas Hiller) team and the Belarussians the more offensive. However, these games often come down to holding the defensive fort and not allowing the other team to score late in the game. Switzerland is simply the better team in this case (they held the USA to 3 goals and took Canada to a shootout). Switzerland moves on, 2-0 to get another crack at the Americans.
5:30- #6 CANADA VS. #11 GERMANY (WINNER PLAYS #3 RUSSIA)
- Canada has really put themselves in an awkward position with the way they finished pool play. They did not want to see Russia until the gold medal game, much less the quarterfinals, but they have only themselves to blame for not putting away Switzerland as they should have and not matching the grit of the Americans. Goaltending is in question now for Canada, do you stick with Brodeur, who hasn't looked good at all, or go with Roberto Luongo, who shut out Norway. The shocker in this case would be if Mike Babcock decides to ride the most clutch goalie he has into the tournament in Marc-Andre Fleury. This game is a no brainer for Canada, don't expect it to be close as they'll want to bounce back from that heartbreaker against the USA. Canada is loaded, Germany isn't. 6-0 at least. Let the pandamonium that will be Canada Vs. Russia ensue.
8:00- #5 CZECH REPUBLIC VS. #12 LATVIA (WINNER PLAYS #4 FINLAND)
- These two teams have already played once, with the Czechs taking a 5-2 win. Not much will change, except the margin might get a little bigger. The Czechs have it, and will take it easily. Finland and the Czechs should be a surprisingly good game.
10:00- #7 SLOVAKIA VS. #11 NORWAY (WINNER PLAYS #2 SWEDEN)
- The last two games on the first day of medal round play certainly don't look to have much excitement. These will be blowouts, and Norway hasn't really been able to show any adversity so far in this tourny. Watch for Norway to try to play dirty, as it did against the USA, in order to try to win. They won't, though.
SPECULATION TIME:
- Here, I'll pick the rest of the bracket. At the end of the tournament, everyone can look back at how wrong I was (My gold medal game was Russia Vs. Canada, thats already wrong).
USA/SWITZERLAND- USA WINS 5-1
FINLAND/CZECH REPUBLIC- FINLAND WINS 4-3
SWEDEN/SLOVAKIA- SWEDEN WINS 5-2
CANADA/RUSSIA- CANADA WINS 5-4
USA/FINLAND- USA WINS 3-1
SWEDEN/CANADA- CANADA WINS 4-2
BRONZE GAME:
FINLAND/SWEDEN- SWEDEN WINS 2-1
GOLD GAME:
USA/CANADA- CANADA WINS 4-3
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