The Toronto Maple Leafs have not seen Playoff Hockey since the 2003-2004 season. Their fan base is beginning to believe that this team might be cursed. Not only have they not won Lord Stanley's Cup since 1967, when the NHL was only a 6 team league, they haven't even been back to the Finals since then. Their current roster is jam packed with outstanding young talent, but none of it seems to be heading in the right direction, or even the same direction. The inconsistencies in draft philosophies are evident here, as the Leafs have flip-flopped GMs twice now in the past 4 seasons. Burke pickups are beginning to define this team's identity, which is something it has been lacking in previous years. Not since Mats Sundin was taking this team to the playoffs 6 straight seasons, reaching at least the conference semifinals in 5 of those years, has this team had an identity. Somehow, this team expects to make it to the post-season next year.
Their management, Brian Burke in particular, is in no hurry to pay respect to veteran leadership, case in point with Dion Phaneuf being named the franchise's next captain over the experienced Tomas Kaberle, who finished second on the team in points with 49 last season in 82 games. Burke is sending a message to his players with this move, and that is this team will be physical if nothing else, and guys like Kaberle just don't fit that profile. In all likelihood, Kaberle is gone by the draft, as Burke has widely acknowledged that he has received offers for his services, and that he was willing to listen to said offers. What he gets in return is anyone's guess, just know that the days of Kaberle being worth a first round pick are long gone. Do not expect Toronto to trade back in to the first round with a package that includes only Kaberle, they will have to package a prospect or two in order to get that done. A more realistic expectation would be a scoring forward and a mid-round selection for the Czech defender.
A main issue for the Leafs is coaching, as Ron Wilson has shown he cannot take a group of rag-tag players and make them winners, as he did when he coached in Washington. Even in the playoffs, Wilson's recent track record is one of repeated failure as coach of the San Jose Sharks. His teams are never physical juggernauts, which is what Burke wants this Leafs team to be from here on out. If Burke expects this team to win by hitting with Wilson behind the bench, he is quite mistaken, because that is simply not a style of coaching suited for Wilson. Besides that, this team is too young to know how to win on any level in the NHL, and the only veteran leadership they have in Kaberle is already halfway out the door. If this team wants an example of how to play with tenacity and exuberance, and to win, it should look no further than across its own province to the Ottawa Senators, who nearly took Pittsburgh to seven games in the first round of the playoffs this year.
No player on the Leafs scored more than 55 points last season, and even that was a disappointment in Phil Kessel's game. Boston perhaps knew that Kessel was not going to live up to his draft status (5th overall in 2006), and got what they could for him (to the tune of this years second overall pick and other picks, a king's ransom). The depth of young talent on this roster is truly staggering. Performances last season like Luke Schenn's or Tyler Bozak's in the second half are exactly what Burke wants to see moving forward. What is even more staggering is that Burke acquired a lot of his talent through trades, not the patient build-through-the-draft approach that is becoming popular. He may have to make some more trades, or even go after a big free agent (Kovalchuk, maybe Alex Frolov) before he has what he wants, but Burke will get a competitive on-the-ice product soon. Maybe not in the next year, but soon.
Returning players: Phil Kessel, Mikhail Grabovski, Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stalberg, Luca Caputi, Fredrick Sjostrom, Colton Orr, Dion Phaneuf, Tomas Kaberle (contract only, expect him to be traded), Carl Gunnarsson, Luke Schenn, Francois Beauchemin, Jeff Finger, Mike Komisarek, Jean-Sebastian Giguere, Jonas Gustavsson
Free Agents who will likely be back: Nikolai Kulemin (RFA), John Mitchell (RFA), Christian Hanson (RFA)
According to CapGeek.com, the Maple Leafs have about $10 million in cap space. Expect them to try to make a splash, but the money may be too tight in this instance to go after, say, Ilya Kovalchuk. They need to add at least one top 6 forward, a third line center and a veteran defender.
Friday, June 18, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
A team without a face: Edmonton Oilers offseason preview
For the Edmonton Oilers, nothing seems to be going in the right direction. They haven't been back to Lord Stanley's Playoffs since their miracle run to the Finals in 2006. They can't seem to find an identity anywhere, despite earnest attempts by management to put the right personalities together (somewhat ironic if you consider the 2006 team, there's hardly a more iconic hockey player than Ryan Smyth). They finished dead last in the NHL with 62 points, 12 less than 29th place Toronto and 17 less than 14th-in-the-West Columbus. They find themselves in much the same situation the Chicago Blackhawks did a few years ago, or the Pittsburgh Penguins before them: stuck with a roster of older players who can't get it done and young players who can't find an identity or rhythm with the team. It is certainly a formidable task ahead, but rebuilding in the NHL does not take as long as it once did, and is certainly possible in the case of the Oilers, though to think they'll be back in competition next season is a bit far fetched. Make no bones about it, this team is in need of a major overhaul.
One thing that could turn this all around, the Oilers have in the first overall draft pick in this months draft, but speculation is the Oilers are shopping the pick in order to acquire some top flight talent in the short term. Steve Tambellini, the GM of the Oilers, however, knows trading the pick is the flat out wrong thing to do in this situation. He has enough buyouts on his mind to begin with, and trading players like Sheldon Souray won't net his team a whole lot in return (at most a mid round draft choice). Look for them to take Tyler Seguin with the first pick, make him their franchise center, and move Sam Gagner down to the second line (his play last year indicated he is more a 2nd liner than a 1st). It was when this team got trade happy (Chris Pronger and Ryan Smyth both gone during the 2007 season) that it fell from grace, and that will usually happen. This is a league that now strives on team chemistry, and too many trades can decimate said chemistry (just look at the New Jersey Devils last season until they added Kovalchuk). In addition, Tambellini has a long list of young players who haven't been living up to their draft potential and could be dealt as well (Patrick O'Sullivan had a league worst -31 ranking, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Jones, Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, even Ales Hemsky might be on the block). If he can't trade some of these players, expect Tambellini to buy them out. If one thing is to be taken from Tambellini in this situation, it is that he is willing and ready to be patient and do what is necessary to make this team win again. Patience must be a virtue for him, or the Oilers will not find their way out of the basement for some time.
Keep in mind that there is some young talent on this roster, but for whatever reason (last year it was goaltending) this team can't keep up with the Northwest Division, which is now squarely back in Vancouver, Calgary, and Colorado's respective grasp. Losing Hemsky (who was +7 with 22 points in 22 games) for 60 games last season surely helped doom this team, but there is more than enough talent to make up for that. Dustin Penner continues to disappoint, even though his 32 goals and 63 points last season were career highs and gave Edmonton fans at least a glimpse of the talent they thought they grabbed from Anaheim. Shawn Horcoff was awful with 13 goals, 23 assists and a -29 rating in 77 appearances. He is signed on for five more years at around $5 million per season, ouch. Ethan Moreau, while invaluable as a leader, is simply not worth $2 million a season, so a buyout seems logical for him. The lack of offense didn't matter any way, as Edmonton's questionable goaltending cost them game after game (combined, the Oiler goaltenders were 27-47-8 with a .900 save % and 3.28 GAA). Tambellini is going to have a rough time trying to trade Nikolai Khabibulin in favor of Jeff Deslauriers, who needs a new contract. Khabibulin appeared only 18 times, none after his November 19th start against Columbus, and got a DUI citation in February. Their defense didn't help either, as 8 of the 11 defensemen that dressed in the regular season finished with a minus rating (Taylor Chorney's is a ghastly -21).
According to CapGeek.com, the Oilers have about $12.5 Million in cap space. Do not expect them to be big players in free agency, the intention of management is clearly to build through the draft. They need scoring depth, at least 2 top 6 forwards, and another couple of top 4 defenders.
Returning Players: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner, Ryan Jones, Robert Nillson, Zack Stortini, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ethan Moreau, Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Sheldon Souray, Taylor Chorney, Nikolai Khabibulin
Free Agents who will likely be back: Gilbert Brule (RFA), Sam Gagner (RFA), Andrew Cogliano (RFA), Ryan Stone (RFA), Jeff Deslauriers (RFA)
Top Prospects: Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Linus Omark, Anton Lander
One thing that could turn this all around, the Oilers have in the first overall draft pick in this months draft, but speculation is the Oilers are shopping the pick in order to acquire some top flight talent in the short term. Steve Tambellini, the GM of the Oilers, however, knows trading the pick is the flat out wrong thing to do in this situation. He has enough buyouts on his mind to begin with, and trading players like Sheldon Souray won't net his team a whole lot in return (at most a mid round draft choice). Look for them to take Tyler Seguin with the first pick, make him their franchise center, and move Sam Gagner down to the second line (his play last year indicated he is more a 2nd liner than a 1st). It was when this team got trade happy (Chris Pronger and Ryan Smyth both gone during the 2007 season) that it fell from grace, and that will usually happen. This is a league that now strives on team chemistry, and too many trades can decimate said chemistry (just look at the New Jersey Devils last season until they added Kovalchuk). In addition, Tambellini has a long list of young players who haven't been living up to their draft potential and could be dealt as well (Patrick O'Sullivan had a league worst -31 ranking, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Jones, Ryan Whitney, Ladislav Smid, even Ales Hemsky might be on the block). If he can't trade some of these players, expect Tambellini to buy them out. If one thing is to be taken from Tambellini in this situation, it is that he is willing and ready to be patient and do what is necessary to make this team win again. Patience must be a virtue for him, or the Oilers will not find their way out of the basement for some time.
Keep in mind that there is some young talent on this roster, but for whatever reason (last year it was goaltending) this team can't keep up with the Northwest Division, which is now squarely back in Vancouver, Calgary, and Colorado's respective grasp. Losing Hemsky (who was +7 with 22 points in 22 games) for 60 games last season surely helped doom this team, but there is more than enough talent to make up for that. Dustin Penner continues to disappoint, even though his 32 goals and 63 points last season were career highs and gave Edmonton fans at least a glimpse of the talent they thought they grabbed from Anaheim. Shawn Horcoff was awful with 13 goals, 23 assists and a -29 rating in 77 appearances. He is signed on for five more years at around $5 million per season, ouch. Ethan Moreau, while invaluable as a leader, is simply not worth $2 million a season, so a buyout seems logical for him. The lack of offense didn't matter any way, as Edmonton's questionable goaltending cost them game after game (combined, the Oiler goaltenders were 27-47-8 with a .900 save % and 3.28 GAA). Tambellini is going to have a rough time trying to trade Nikolai Khabibulin in favor of Jeff Deslauriers, who needs a new contract. Khabibulin appeared only 18 times, none after his November 19th start against Columbus, and got a DUI citation in February. Their defense didn't help either, as 8 of the 11 defensemen that dressed in the regular season finished with a minus rating (Taylor Chorney's is a ghastly -21).
According to CapGeek.com, the Oilers have about $12.5 Million in cap space. Do not expect them to be big players in free agency, the intention of management is clearly to build through the draft. They need scoring depth, at least 2 top 6 forwards, and another couple of top 4 defenders.
Returning Players: Ales Hemsky, Dustin Penner, Ryan Jones, Robert Nillson, Zack Stortini, Shawn Horcoff, Patrick O'Sullivan, Ethan Moreau, Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Ladislav Smid, Sheldon Souray, Taylor Chorney, Nikolai Khabibulin
Free Agents who will likely be back: Gilbert Brule (RFA), Sam Gagner (RFA), Andrew Cogliano (RFA), Ryan Stone (RFA), Jeff Deslauriers (RFA)
Top Prospects: Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Linus Omark, Anton Lander
Monday, April 12, 2010
It's the most wonderful time of the year: Stanley Cup Playoff Preview (Western Conference)
The Western Conference, when compared with the East this season, is simply a much more balanced, physical, and all around better conference than the seemingly top heavy beasts in Pittsburgh, Washington and New Jersey. It took Colorado 95 points to secure the final spot out West, in the East Montreal secured their bid with only 88, which would have placed them in 12th place had they been in the other conference. This group is a mystery, and no one knows exactly what will come of this conference. Can the Sharks finally break their post-season curse? Is this the year the Cup goes back to Chicago for the first time since 1961? Could Phoenix continue to surprise and come out on top? Let's take a look to try to make some sense of this maze:
1. SAN JOSE SHARKS (51-20-11, 113 points) VS. 8. COLORADO AVALANCHE (43-30-9, 95 points)
- This is a series of opposites. You have on one side a team loaded with experience (albeit of bowing out early in the playoffs) that everyone expects to deliver season after season, yet they never do. On the other side, a team with little to no experience of the postseason that had no expectations whatsoever for this season, and they delivered on what nobody thought they could. Goaltending wise, Evgeni Nabokov has never been one to stand out in the post season, ditto for teammate Joe Thornton, who might very well be the biggest playoff choke of all time in hockey considering he led the NHL in scoring the last decade. The Avs have had a magical season thus far, and the amount of injuries this team suffered never seemed to slow them down. Their rookie core stepped in immediately, led by Matt Duchene, Ryan O'reilly and T.J. Galiardi.They put up the 4th most goals in the West and 6th most in the NHL this season, which is mind boggling considering where the Avalanche were just a season ago. The season series was split with both teams pulling out 2 victories, all 4 of the games were filled with shots on both sides, so the goalies should be plenty busy. If this is a goaltender's series, it is much more likely that the flash in the pan belongs to Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson than it does to Nabokov (season stats: Nabokov piled up 44 wins, .922 save % and 2.34 GAA while Cranderson, as some Avalanche fans affectionalely call him, won 38 games with a .917 save % and 2.64 GAA). Anderson faced more shots than any goaltender in the NHL this season, so his 38 wins in a franchise record 70 starts are something to behold. I don't see the Sharks slipping up yet though, and they should beat this team considering what little playoff experience their opponents have and the fact that they have the second best offense in the NHL goal wise. Simply stating the facts as they might appear in this case, which isn't to say an upset won't happen. Sharks in 6 games.
2. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (52-22-8, 112 points) VS. 7. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (47-29-6, 100 points)
- This is where the hockey world gets its first look at the Blackhawk goaltenders in the playoffs, a topic much anticipated by many. Cristobal Huet had a save percentage of .895 in 48 games, winning 26 of those games. Antti Niemi, on the other hand, won the same number of games in just 39 starts, leading some to believe Niemi could see some time this series. It may not matter who starts if neither of them is up to the task of stopping this potent, well coached Nashville lineup which boasts 9 players who scored 10 or more goals this season. Chicago, however, has the second best defense in the Western Conference behind Phoenix, the 'Hawks letting in 209 goals while the 'Yotes just 202. The Preds might be able to bank on some divisional hate for the Blackhawks to motivate them, but they will need much more than that to beat this skilled, fast, physical lineup of Chicago. They will need Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne to steal games. They will need Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to dominate Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews. They will need spotty goaltending from Chicago. One of the three of those does not a series victory make. Blackhawks in 5 games.
3. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (49-28-5, 103 points)VS. 6. LOS ANGELES KINGS (46-27-9, 101 points)
- Before I break this series down, I would like to talk about the conception of this series by the national media, specifically ESPN. They regard an LA victory in this series as an upset. These teams are seperated in the standings by one game, that's it. This series is more or less a toss up, but what the Canucks do have going for them is recent experience of playoff games, where most of these Kings are seeing the playoffs for the first time. Los Angeles is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003, and there could be one of those weird magical waves that the Stanley Cup Playoff atmosphere just seem to manufacute year after year. This LA team knows it has a good chance to advance here. Vancouver is the best hope that Canada has of reclaiming the Cup from the United States, so that pressure might be felt in the locker room, and these are not the same athelets who beat the United States in the olympics, for the most part. There won't be a Scott Niedermayer there to deny a chance should that situation arise. Keep in mind that Los Angeles won 24 road games this season, tied for most in the NHL. This is exactly the kind of matchup the NHL owners had in mind when they restructured the game after the lockout, and the parity in their league is rivaled now only by the NFL. This is an LA team that is a victim of inconsistent forward play, and that might take place here should nerves get the better of them. Quick, in addition, was worn down at the end of the season, and I see that translating to quick goals for the Vancouver lineup in otherwise close games that will decide those contests. Vancouver in 6 games.
4. PHOENIX COYOTES (50-25-7, 107 points) VS. 5. DETROIT RED WINGS (44-24-14, 102 points)
- Though Detroit won less games than both Los Angeles and Nashville, they snuck in to the 5th seed as a result of their losses in overtimes and shootouts. Some would argue the team with more wins should be a higher seed, but since the NHL rewards losing in close fashion these days, Detroit avoided meeting Vancouver, Chicago, or San Jose in the first round. Not many are giving Phoenix much of a chance to get this series won, but their defense is the best in the conference, and if they can choke the life out of a rapidly aging Red Wings squad with their trap-style play, they could move on to the next round, and by all accounts, shock the hockey world once again. Detroit righted the ship after the olympic break and were the NHL's best team in the span. They have boatloads of experience with championship results, so Red Wings fans should be confident in their team to get the job done. Just don't expect it to be a 4 or 5 game affair, because if the Red Wings get big headed now, Phoenix will blow right past them. As it is, I don't see that happening, largely because of Mike Babcock being behind the bench. Red Wings in 7 games.
1. SAN JOSE SHARKS (51-20-11, 113 points) VS. 8. COLORADO AVALANCHE (43-30-9, 95 points)
- This is a series of opposites. You have on one side a team loaded with experience (albeit of bowing out early in the playoffs) that everyone expects to deliver season after season, yet they never do. On the other side, a team with little to no experience of the postseason that had no expectations whatsoever for this season, and they delivered on what nobody thought they could. Goaltending wise, Evgeni Nabokov has never been one to stand out in the post season, ditto for teammate Joe Thornton, who might very well be the biggest playoff choke of all time in hockey considering he led the NHL in scoring the last decade. The Avs have had a magical season thus far, and the amount of injuries this team suffered never seemed to slow them down. Their rookie core stepped in immediately, led by Matt Duchene, Ryan O'reilly and T.J. Galiardi.They put up the 4th most goals in the West and 6th most in the NHL this season, which is mind boggling considering where the Avalanche were just a season ago. The season series was split with both teams pulling out 2 victories, all 4 of the games were filled with shots on both sides, so the goalies should be plenty busy. If this is a goaltender's series, it is much more likely that the flash in the pan belongs to Avalanche goalie Craig Anderson than it does to Nabokov (season stats: Nabokov piled up 44 wins, .922 save % and 2.34 GAA while Cranderson, as some Avalanche fans affectionalely call him, won 38 games with a .917 save % and 2.64 GAA). Anderson faced more shots than any goaltender in the NHL this season, so his 38 wins in a franchise record 70 starts are something to behold. I don't see the Sharks slipping up yet though, and they should beat this team considering what little playoff experience their opponents have and the fact that they have the second best offense in the NHL goal wise. Simply stating the facts as they might appear in this case, which isn't to say an upset won't happen. Sharks in 6 games.
2. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS (52-22-8, 112 points) VS. 7. NASHVILLE PREDATORS (47-29-6, 100 points)
- This is where the hockey world gets its first look at the Blackhawk goaltenders in the playoffs, a topic much anticipated by many. Cristobal Huet had a save percentage of .895 in 48 games, winning 26 of those games. Antti Niemi, on the other hand, won the same number of games in just 39 starts, leading some to believe Niemi could see some time this series. It may not matter who starts if neither of them is up to the task of stopping this potent, well coached Nashville lineup which boasts 9 players who scored 10 or more goals this season. Chicago, however, has the second best defense in the Western Conference behind Phoenix, the 'Hawks letting in 209 goals while the 'Yotes just 202. The Preds might be able to bank on some divisional hate for the Blackhawks to motivate them, but they will need much more than that to beat this skilled, fast, physical lineup of Chicago. They will need Dan Ellis or Pekka Rinne to steal games. They will need Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to dominate Patrick Kane and Johnathan Toews. They will need spotty goaltending from Chicago. One of the three of those does not a series victory make. Blackhawks in 5 games.
3. VANCOUVER CANUCKS (49-28-5, 103 points)VS. 6. LOS ANGELES KINGS (46-27-9, 101 points)
- Before I break this series down, I would like to talk about the conception of this series by the national media, specifically ESPN. They regard an LA victory in this series as an upset. These teams are seperated in the standings by one game, that's it. This series is more or less a toss up, but what the Canucks do have going for them is recent experience of playoff games, where most of these Kings are seeing the playoffs for the first time. Los Angeles is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2003, and there could be one of those weird magical waves that the Stanley Cup Playoff atmosphere just seem to manufacute year after year. This LA team knows it has a good chance to advance here. Vancouver is the best hope that Canada has of reclaiming the Cup from the United States, so that pressure might be felt in the locker room, and these are not the same athelets who beat the United States in the olympics, for the most part. There won't be a Scott Niedermayer there to deny a chance should that situation arise. Keep in mind that Los Angeles won 24 road games this season, tied for most in the NHL. This is exactly the kind of matchup the NHL owners had in mind when they restructured the game after the lockout, and the parity in their league is rivaled now only by the NFL. This is an LA team that is a victim of inconsistent forward play, and that might take place here should nerves get the better of them. Quick, in addition, was worn down at the end of the season, and I see that translating to quick goals for the Vancouver lineup in otherwise close games that will decide those contests. Vancouver in 6 games.
4. PHOENIX COYOTES (50-25-7, 107 points) VS. 5. DETROIT RED WINGS (44-24-14, 102 points)
- Though Detroit won less games than both Los Angeles and Nashville, they snuck in to the 5th seed as a result of their losses in overtimes and shootouts. Some would argue the team with more wins should be a higher seed, but since the NHL rewards losing in close fashion these days, Detroit avoided meeting Vancouver, Chicago, or San Jose in the first round. Not many are giving Phoenix much of a chance to get this series won, but their defense is the best in the conference, and if they can choke the life out of a rapidly aging Red Wings squad with their trap-style play, they could move on to the next round, and by all accounts, shock the hockey world once again. Detroit righted the ship after the olympic break and were the NHL's best team in the span. They have boatloads of experience with championship results, so Red Wings fans should be confident in their team to get the job done. Just don't expect it to be a 4 or 5 game affair, because if the Red Wings get big headed now, Phoenix will blow right past them. As it is, I don't see that happening, largely because of Mike Babcock being behind the bench. Red Wings in 7 games.
It's the most wonderful time of the year: Stanley Cup Playoff Preview (Eastern Conference)
It turns out that Boston/Washington game was pretty boring, too bad the NHL couldn't switch to that Flyers/Rangers game yesterday; I hate it when I'm right sometimes. On that note, now that the regular season is finished, it's time to look ahead to the magic that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. There are some intriguing series on both sides of the bracket, but I'd like to start today with a look at the Eastern Conference. Feel free to comment with your picks and certainly to trash mine.
1)WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-3, 121 points) VS. 8)MONTREAL CANADIENS (39-33-10, 88 points)
- This is the time Alexander Ovechkin has been waiting for: he wants vengeance against Crosby, the Penguins, and by proxy, the NHL at large after going down in flames last season. Other teams should duck and cover, and even then this Titanous lineup of Washington's seems overwhelming. Washington scored 101 more goals than Montreal this season, and no Canadien scored more than 30 goals (Washington has 3 30+ goal scorers). In addition, no Hab was over +11 for the season, while the Caps boast 12 players with that total or better. Special teams wise, these are the two best teams in the NHL with respect to playing with the man-advantage (25.2% and 21.8% respecitvely). Montreal is 12th in the league in killing penalties, while Washington is 25th. Goaltending is where this series takes an interesting turn, with Jaroslav Halak coming up against the tandem of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov. Halak played well in his 45 games this season, taking over the job from Carey Price, posting a .924 save percentage with 26 wins, while Theodore and Varlamov split time, neither looking particularly impressive (Theodore .911 save percentage, 30 wins, Varlamov .909 with 15 wins). I wouldn't rule out Les Habitants pulling the upset here, but I also wouldn't count on it. Capitals in 5 games.
2)NEW JERSEY DEVILS (48-27-7, 103 points) VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (41-35-6, 88 points)
- This is not going to be a long series, and if it is, shame on New Jersey. They've played the best trap hockey this season since their 2003 run to the Stanley Cup, and with Jacques Lemers (pioneer, innovator of the trap) behind the bench, this team should make quick work of a team starting Brian Boucher in net. They were the only team to allow less than 200 goals this season in the league. The question for the Devils remains the same as it has been in previous years: can Martin Broduer stand up to Cup Playoff pressure anymore? Last year, he clearly did not, giving up 2 huge goals at the end of game 7 to cough up the season. Even in 08 they lost in the 1st round to the New York Rangers. The Flyers, by all accounts, are seemingly the team just happy to be in, and so the expectations are relatively low. Last time the Flyers were in such a position, they made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2008. I'm by no means picking them to win, I'm merely hinting that the Devils armor is not as solid as it may seem. Devils in 6 games.
3) BUFFALO SABRES(45-27-10, 100 points) VS. 6) BOSTON BRUINS (39-30-13, 91 points)
- Both of these teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NHL in goals allowed this season, and this should be one hell of a physical battle. The story, and indeed the hope, of Buffalo is on the shoulders of Ryan Miller, the hero goaltender of team USA in Vancouver who fell just short. a .929 save percentage coupled with 41 wins puts him sqaurely in the debate not just for the Vezina trophy, but also the Hart. For Boston, their offense has been horrendous since losing Marc Savard to that brutal blind-side hit by Matt Cooke. They finished 30th in the NHL in goals for. One wouldn't hesitate to say that if Savard doesn't return in this series, and play well, Boston's goose may be cooked. With a shaky Tim Thomas (he won just 17 games this year after winning the Vezina last season) benched for Tukka Rask, this could be a quick series for Boston, especially if Miller gets hot. That's not to say Rask hasn't played well in relief, he simply will be out-dueled by a superior goaltender. Sabres in 5 games.
4) PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (47-28-7, 101 points) VS. 5) OTTAWA SENATORS (44-32-6, 94 points)
- This is certainly an interesting test for the defending champion Penguins in the first round. A top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Alex Kovalev is no picnic, and Bryan Elliot has been a solid starter for the Sens all season, after taking the reigns from an injured Pascal Leclaire. While his opponent in this series, Marc-Andre Fleury, did not have his best season (still compiled 37 wins with a .906 save percentage), this is clearly the time of year that this goaltender relishes. He is a playoff goaltender, and his M.O. is to win 4 games out of 7. He has won 7 of the last 8 series that he has been a part of, including some where he needed to stand completely on his head and make 40+ saves a night in order to win (e.g. game 3 of the Philly series, the save on Ovechkin in game 7 last season). Sidney Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year (who would've thought that when the regular season started), and is carrying this team, as always. This series matches up a team trying to put the pieces back together and compete again against a hardened champion, ready to defend their title. These two teams bring the fireworks in the playoffs, just think of those series 2 and 3 years ago. This should be an entertaining series, and the Sens will give the Pens more than they thought capable of Ottawa, but the champs will get it done. Penguins in 5 games.
1)WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-3, 121 points) VS. 8)MONTREAL CANADIENS (39-33-10, 88 points)
- This is the time Alexander Ovechkin has been waiting for: he wants vengeance against Crosby, the Penguins, and by proxy, the NHL at large after going down in flames last season. Other teams should duck and cover, and even then this Titanous lineup of Washington's seems overwhelming. Washington scored 101 more goals than Montreal this season, and no Canadien scored more than 30 goals (Washington has 3 30+ goal scorers). In addition, no Hab was over +11 for the season, while the Caps boast 12 players with that total or better. Special teams wise, these are the two best teams in the NHL with respect to playing with the man-advantage (25.2% and 21.8% respecitvely). Montreal is 12th in the league in killing penalties, while Washington is 25th. Goaltending is where this series takes an interesting turn, with Jaroslav Halak coming up against the tandem of Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov. Halak played well in his 45 games this season, taking over the job from Carey Price, posting a .924 save percentage with 26 wins, while Theodore and Varlamov split time, neither looking particularly impressive (Theodore .911 save percentage, 30 wins, Varlamov .909 with 15 wins). I wouldn't rule out Les Habitants pulling the upset here, but I also wouldn't count on it. Capitals in 5 games.
2)NEW JERSEY DEVILS (48-27-7, 103 points) VS. PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (41-35-6, 88 points)
- This is not going to be a long series, and if it is, shame on New Jersey. They've played the best trap hockey this season since their 2003 run to the Stanley Cup, and with Jacques Lemers (pioneer, innovator of the trap) behind the bench, this team should make quick work of a team starting Brian Boucher in net. They were the only team to allow less than 200 goals this season in the league. The question for the Devils remains the same as it has been in previous years: can Martin Broduer stand up to Cup Playoff pressure anymore? Last year, he clearly did not, giving up 2 huge goals at the end of game 7 to cough up the season. Even in 08 they lost in the 1st round to the New York Rangers. The Flyers, by all accounts, are seemingly the team just happy to be in, and so the expectations are relatively low. Last time the Flyers were in such a position, they made a run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2008. I'm by no means picking them to win, I'm merely hinting that the Devils armor is not as solid as it may seem. Devils in 6 games.
3) BUFFALO SABRES(45-27-10, 100 points) VS. 6) BOSTON BRUINS (39-30-13, 91 points)
- Both of these teams are 2nd and 3rd in the NHL in goals allowed this season, and this should be one hell of a physical battle. The story, and indeed the hope, of Buffalo is on the shoulders of Ryan Miller, the hero goaltender of team USA in Vancouver who fell just short. a .929 save percentage coupled with 41 wins puts him sqaurely in the debate not just for the Vezina trophy, but also the Hart. For Boston, their offense has been horrendous since losing Marc Savard to that brutal blind-side hit by Matt Cooke. They finished 30th in the NHL in goals for. One wouldn't hesitate to say that if Savard doesn't return in this series, and play well, Boston's goose may be cooked. With a shaky Tim Thomas (he won just 17 games this year after winning the Vezina last season) benched for Tukka Rask, this could be a quick series for Boston, especially if Miller gets hot. That's not to say Rask hasn't played well in relief, he simply will be out-dueled by a superior goaltender. Sabres in 5 games.
4) PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (47-28-7, 101 points) VS. 5) OTTAWA SENATORS (44-32-6, 94 points)
- This is certainly an interesting test for the defending champion Penguins in the first round. A top line of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza and Alex Kovalev is no picnic, and Bryan Elliot has been a solid starter for the Sens all season, after taking the reigns from an injured Pascal Leclaire. While his opponent in this series, Marc-Andre Fleury, did not have his best season (still compiled 37 wins with a .906 save percentage), this is clearly the time of year that this goaltender relishes. He is a playoff goaltender, and his M.O. is to win 4 games out of 7. He has won 7 of the last 8 series that he has been a part of, including some where he needed to stand completely on his head and make 40+ saves a night in order to win (e.g. game 3 of the Philly series, the save on Ovechkin in game 7 last season). Sidney Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year (who would've thought that when the regular season started), and is carrying this team, as always. This series matches up a team trying to put the pieces back together and compete again against a hardened champion, ready to defend their title. These two teams bring the fireworks in the playoffs, just think of those series 2 and 3 years ago. This should be an entertaining series, and the Sens will give the Pens more than they thought capable of Ottawa, but the champs will get it done. Penguins in 5 games.
Sunday, April 11, 2010
A Return for the playoffs: Final day matchups determine seeding
It's good to be back in the fold after taking an Olympic break myself for the month of March. The NHL is on its final Sunday, and now is as good a time as any to return and analyze. So, let's go around the league this final sunday, starting with the east coast bias that is Ovechkin on NBC, and then on to the showdown of Philly and New York for that final spot in the East. Some of the other games are for seeding (LA/Colorado and Chicago/Detroit), so we'll focus on just 2 games from today's schedule that give an overall feel for the season finale because the rest of the games don't mean a thing (Edmonton/Anaheim, Tampa Bay/Florida, Buffalo/New Jersey, Pittsburgh/New York Islanders).
BOSTON BRUINS (Currently 38-30-18, 6th place in the East) VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-12, best record in hockey, clinched the President's trophy)
- This game, more or less, means nothing to either team than a simple tune up for the playoffs. Boston is a team limping into the playoffs, and if their record is any indication (their 89 points is not even enough to be in 10th place out West), they just want to get healthy, and maybe get some kind of momentum going into the big dance. When Zdeno Chara leads your team in assists (37) and is third on the team in points (44), you know that your offense is struggling, to say the least. This team is aching to get Marc Savard back for the playoffs (his 33 points in 41 games is the closest any Bruin comes to a point-a-game pace). They are not necessarily struggling, going 6-3-1 in their last 10, but when you are locked in with the playoff opponent Boston is (they are locked in to a match up with the Buffalo Sabres and Ryan Miller), you want to be scoring more goals. Their 202 goal total for the year is 30th in the NHL.
For the Caps, this game is again, a tune up. They've been playing these types of games for weeks, like many teams do when they lock up the President's Trophy in early fashion. This is purely a momentum game for them. They're running with a 5 game win streak, seemingly getting hot at the right time with a big 6-3 win over Pittsburgh (the first time in Ovechkin's young career that he has gotten the better of Sidney Crosby and his mates). Conversely, their 315 goals is 1st in the NHL this season, and no other team even comes close on offense this year (Vancouver is 2nd with 272, almost 50 goals less). If I were a Caps fan, I would hope Ovechkin doesn't do something stupid and get himself suspended for the first couple of games, and even that is a long shot as Boudreau surely won't be double-shifting Ovie today. It will be tough for them not to have their eyes on New York and Philly later today, with one of those teams being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss today.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (40-35-6, 8th in the East) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (38-33-10, 9th in the East)
- It's games like these that make me wish NBC does for the NHL what it does for the NFL: flex scheduling so that important games like this one can be seen nationally. What could be better for the NHL on a season finale day than to have the Flyers and Rangers battling for the final playoff spot? But instead, they picked Washington/Boston at the beginning of the year and are stuck with that snooze fest of a game. If the Flyers win, and it doesnt matter if it goes to overtime or not, they will be the 7th seed in the East and meet the New Jersey Devils in the first round. If the Rangers win, however, they would meet Ovechkin's Capitals as the number 8 seed. For the Flyers of late, winners of just 3 of their last 10, they are indeed backing in, or perhaps out, of the playoffs. If they want answers, just look the the 3rd best power play unit in hockey this year (21.5%). If this game becomes a slug fest, which it might considering the implications and these teams past history, the Rangers might be able to take that special-teams element out of the game, or at least out of the forefront. The Flyers have, by all accounts, underachieved this season (Richards only 62 points, Carter with 60, and Pronger in 3rd on the team with 55), and if they were to lose this game, many people would question the move earlier in the year to fire then coach John Stevens and replace him with Peter Laviolette. Compound that with the fact that the Flyers are likely starting Brian Boucher today due to the rash of goaltending injuries, and Flyer fans must have already hit the panic button. The Rangers, on the other hand, are red-hot coming into today's game, winning 7 of their last 10, and 9 of their last 13. Other than Marian Gaborik, who has 86 points in 75 games, the Rangers do not immediately boast any kind of offensive advantage over Philly, although the forward did score the winning goal in these teams last meeting on Friday, a 4-3 Rangers win that set up this dramatic showdown.
BOSTON BRUINS (Currently 38-30-18, 6th place in the East) VS. WASHINGTON CAPITALS (54-15-12, best record in hockey, clinched the President's trophy)
- This game, more or less, means nothing to either team than a simple tune up for the playoffs. Boston is a team limping into the playoffs, and if their record is any indication (their 89 points is not even enough to be in 10th place out West), they just want to get healthy, and maybe get some kind of momentum going into the big dance. When Zdeno Chara leads your team in assists (37) and is third on the team in points (44), you know that your offense is struggling, to say the least. This team is aching to get Marc Savard back for the playoffs (his 33 points in 41 games is the closest any Bruin comes to a point-a-game pace). They are not necessarily struggling, going 6-3-1 in their last 10, but when you are locked in with the playoff opponent Boston is (they are locked in to a match up with the Buffalo Sabres and Ryan Miller), you want to be scoring more goals. Their 202 goal total for the year is 30th in the NHL.
For the Caps, this game is again, a tune up. They've been playing these types of games for weeks, like many teams do when they lock up the President's Trophy in early fashion. This is purely a momentum game for them. They're running with a 5 game win streak, seemingly getting hot at the right time with a big 6-3 win over Pittsburgh (the first time in Ovechkin's young career that he has gotten the better of Sidney Crosby and his mates). Conversely, their 315 goals is 1st in the NHL this season, and no other team even comes close on offense this year (Vancouver is 2nd with 272, almost 50 goals less). If I were a Caps fan, I would hope Ovechkin doesn't do something stupid and get himself suspended for the first couple of games, and even that is a long shot as Boudreau surely won't be double-shifting Ovie today. It will be tough for them not to have their eyes on New York and Philly later today, with one of those teams being eliminated from playoff contention with a loss today.
PHILADELPHIA FLYERS (40-35-6, 8th in the East) VS. NEW YORK RANGERS (38-33-10, 9th in the East)
- It's games like these that make me wish NBC does for the NHL what it does for the NFL: flex scheduling so that important games like this one can be seen nationally. What could be better for the NHL on a season finale day than to have the Flyers and Rangers battling for the final playoff spot? But instead, they picked Washington/Boston at the beginning of the year and are stuck with that snooze fest of a game. If the Flyers win, and it doesnt matter if it goes to overtime or not, they will be the 7th seed in the East and meet the New Jersey Devils in the first round. If the Rangers win, however, they would meet Ovechkin's Capitals as the number 8 seed. For the Flyers of late, winners of just 3 of their last 10, they are indeed backing in, or perhaps out, of the playoffs. If they want answers, just look the the 3rd best power play unit in hockey this year (21.5%). If this game becomes a slug fest, which it might considering the implications and these teams past history, the Rangers might be able to take that special-teams element out of the game, or at least out of the forefront. The Flyers have, by all accounts, underachieved this season (Richards only 62 points, Carter with 60, and Pronger in 3rd on the team with 55), and if they were to lose this game, many people would question the move earlier in the year to fire then coach John Stevens and replace him with Peter Laviolette. Compound that with the fact that the Flyers are likely starting Brian Boucher today due to the rash of goaltending injuries, and Flyer fans must have already hit the panic button. The Rangers, on the other hand, are red-hot coming into today's game, winning 7 of their last 10, and 9 of their last 13. Other than Marian Gaborik, who has 86 points in 75 games, the Rangers do not immediately boast any kind of offensive advantage over Philly, although the forward did score the winning goal in these teams last meeting on Friday, a 4-3 Rangers win that set up this dramatic showdown.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Trades of the day
Now that the rosters have been unfrozen, some deals have been made. Expect a ton more as the trade deadline is on Wednesday. Here are the deals and analysis:
- Pittsburgh Penguins trade a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft to the Florida Panthers for Defenseman Jordan Leopold.
- Edmonton Oilers trade Defenseman Denis Grebeshkov to the Nashville Predators for a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft.
- Leopold has 7 goals and 11 assists in 61 games for the Panthers. He is also -7. Expect his numbers to drastically improve on a Pens roster with more than enough talent to complement Leopold's offensive skills. The Penguins are looking to improve their power play (currently 26th in the league at a pedestrian 16.5%), and the addition of Leopold may be a shot in the arm for this team.
- Nashville gets significantly deeper on the back end and don't give up that much to get Grebeshkov, who currently has 6 goals and 13 assists in 47 games this season for the Oilers. The Oilers will be big sellers at the deadline, and they have some talent that a team on the playoff bubble could make an offer for players like Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, or Sheldon Souray. Grebeshkov is a -16, but attribute much of that to how awful the Oilers are defensively. There are only 5 Oiler starters with a +/- rating above 0 (Hemsky +7, Smid +5, Stone +2, Stortini +2, Penner +2). Nashville's Power Play is around 16.7% for the season, so like Pittsburgh, Nashville wants this to be a shot in the arm for a unit with more than enough talent to get the job done with the extra man. With only 165 goals on the season, expect Nashville to continue to shop around for offensive talent, and if this trade is any indication, they will trade assets if they feel the Predators are a better team as a result of whatever deal is made.
- Pittsburgh Penguins trade a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft to the Florida Panthers for Defenseman Jordan Leopold.
- Edmonton Oilers trade Defenseman Denis Grebeshkov to the Nashville Predators for a 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft.
- Leopold has 7 goals and 11 assists in 61 games for the Panthers. He is also -7. Expect his numbers to drastically improve on a Pens roster with more than enough talent to complement Leopold's offensive skills. The Penguins are looking to improve their power play (currently 26th in the league at a pedestrian 16.5%), and the addition of Leopold may be a shot in the arm for this team.
- Nashville gets significantly deeper on the back end and don't give up that much to get Grebeshkov, who currently has 6 goals and 13 assists in 47 games this season for the Oilers. The Oilers will be big sellers at the deadline, and they have some talent that a team on the playoff bubble could make an offer for players like Dustin Penner, Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, or Sheldon Souray. Grebeshkov is a -16, but attribute much of that to how awful the Oilers are defensively. There are only 5 Oiler starters with a +/- rating above 0 (Hemsky +7, Smid +5, Stone +2, Stortini +2, Penner +2). Nashville's Power Play is around 16.7% for the season, so like Pittsburgh, Nashville wants this to be a shot in the arm for a unit with more than enough talent to get the job done with the extra man. With only 165 goals on the season, expect Nashville to continue to shop around for offensive talent, and if this trade is any indication, they will trade assets if they feel the Predators are a better team as a result of whatever deal is made.
Sunday, February 28, 2010
The Time for Gold Draws Near: USA VS. CANADA, 1:15 Mountain
So here we are, the exact match up of a week ago, only now for all the marbles. Before I break into the statistical breakdown of this game, I'd like to briefly examine the social environment of this game from both sides. For the Canadians, this is as big as it gets on a national stage, and the consensus from them is one of confidence heading into this game, carried with the usual lack of respect for American hockey. That lack of respect is not entirely unfounded, and exists today as American apathy and ignorance towards hockey (for instance, some of my friends say things like ,"I haven't followed hockey since the strike" and, "I don't know any of the players anymore"). Canadian fans certainly do not want to see a country that clearly does not love hockey as much as it does win the Gold medal on their ice.
And on the other side of that coin, the American fans are confident, and almost cocky, heading into this game. The majority of Americans watching this game, to quote Al Michaels, "don't know the difference between a blue line and a clothes lines." They certainly feel that all the pressure is on the Canadians, especially after squeezing out a 3-2 win against the Slovaks on Friday. A lot of American hockey fans, myself included, feel that Canada never recognizes our attention, dedication to and love for the game. Alas, hockey fans are marginalized in this country, and ignorance seems to be the general trend of the American casual hockey fan (i.e. few fans of the Colorado Avalanche knew who Craig Anderson was before the start of the 2009-2010 season). Now that, in some semblance, the rivalry has been explained, I will now move on to analyze the game.
It is often said that the winner of an Olympic hockey tournament is the team with the best goaltender (a la Dominick Hasek in Nagano 1998). There is no question at this point who the best goaltender in this tournament is, and simply put, its Miller Time. Ryan Miller leads all goaltenders in the Olympics with a crazy .953 save percentage and an equally stunning 1.04 GAA. Roberto Luongo, his opponent in this game, has a .919 save percentage with a 1.75 GAA. Last Sunday, Miller made 43 saves against Martin Brodeur's 17 (on 22 shots, ouch). Regardless, the goaltender who should be starting here isn't, and won't see any ice time at these olympics (despite being on the roster and many other teams deploying 3 different goalies in the tournament, Mike Babcock seems to be holding a grudge against Marc-Andre Fleury for stone walling his Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, but this rant is for another day). I expect the shot chart to look much the same, and Miller will need another Herculean effort today.
The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether or not the Americans get into penalty trouble, since their PK for the tournament has been a questionable 76.9%. The United States, however, has taken the least amount of penalties (13 in five games) of any team in this tournament, so they have been at least disciplined. Canada has given up one less power play goal than the US (3 to 2), and have the best PK in the tournament with an 88.24%. Power play wise, these two teams are just about as efficient as the other (Canada's 29.17% to USA's 28.57). If Canada gets on the advantage, this is certainly an area where they might dominate(their blue line has 27 points in 6 games, America's has only 12 from two players in 5 games). Look out for Shea Weber's bomb from the point that he literally put through the net in the play-in game against Germany.
Interestingly, the Americans have taken almost 100 less shots than the Canadians (155 in 5 games to 243 in 6 games), and have been much more opportune in that regard. Percentage wise, in terms of scoring efficiency, both teams are shooting around 15%(Canada 13.17, USA 14.19). Canada's 32 goals in the tournament are tops, America's 22 (tied with Slovakia) are second best. These teams will score given the chance. Offensive X factors include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Malone (not a dynamo, but if he scores it motivates his team).
On the defensive side, the US has given up just 6 goals in 5 games, while Canada has given up 14. The unit in red, white and blue is much more stout physically than Canada's, and while at once not as offensively gifted, they will hit you in the mouth without hesitation. The United States has played much more physically than any other team in this tournament, and if the trends continue today (Miller as a brick wall, USA as an opportune team, a little too much pressure on Canada), the Americans will have their first Gold in 30 years. However, I must stick with my guns, I've been harping on Canada as the gold winner for three weeks now, and I see them getting the job done today, 4-3.
And on the other side of that coin, the American fans are confident, and almost cocky, heading into this game. The majority of Americans watching this game, to quote Al Michaels, "don't know the difference between a blue line and a clothes lines." They certainly feel that all the pressure is on the Canadians, especially after squeezing out a 3-2 win against the Slovaks on Friday. A lot of American hockey fans, myself included, feel that Canada never recognizes our attention, dedication to and love for the game. Alas, hockey fans are marginalized in this country, and ignorance seems to be the general trend of the American casual hockey fan (i.e. few fans of the Colorado Avalanche knew who Craig Anderson was before the start of the 2009-2010 season). Now that, in some semblance, the rivalry has been explained, I will now move on to analyze the game.
It is often said that the winner of an Olympic hockey tournament is the team with the best goaltender (a la Dominick Hasek in Nagano 1998). There is no question at this point who the best goaltender in this tournament is, and simply put, its Miller Time. Ryan Miller leads all goaltenders in the Olympics with a crazy .953 save percentage and an equally stunning 1.04 GAA. Roberto Luongo, his opponent in this game, has a .919 save percentage with a 1.75 GAA. Last Sunday, Miller made 43 saves against Martin Brodeur's 17 (on 22 shots, ouch). Regardless, the goaltender who should be starting here isn't, and won't see any ice time at these olympics (despite being on the roster and many other teams deploying 3 different goalies in the tournament, Mike Babcock seems to be holding a grudge against Marc-Andre Fleury for stone walling his Detroit Red Wings in the Stanley Cup Finals last season, but this rant is for another day). I expect the shot chart to look much the same, and Miller will need another Herculean effort today.
The biggest thing to watch in this game is whether or not the Americans get into penalty trouble, since their PK for the tournament has been a questionable 76.9%. The United States, however, has taken the least amount of penalties (13 in five games) of any team in this tournament, so they have been at least disciplined. Canada has given up one less power play goal than the US (3 to 2), and have the best PK in the tournament with an 88.24%. Power play wise, these two teams are just about as efficient as the other (Canada's 29.17% to USA's 28.57). If Canada gets on the advantage, this is certainly an area where they might dominate(their blue line has 27 points in 6 games, America's has only 12 from two players in 5 games). Look out for Shea Weber's bomb from the point that he literally put through the net in the play-in game against Germany.
Interestingly, the Americans have taken almost 100 less shots than the Canadians (155 in 5 games to 243 in 6 games), and have been much more opportune in that regard. Percentage wise, in terms of scoring efficiency, both teams are shooting around 15%(Canada 13.17, USA 14.19). Canada's 32 goals in the tournament are tops, America's 22 (tied with Slovakia) are second best. These teams will score given the chance. Offensive X factors include Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Ryan Getzlaf, and Ryan Malone (not a dynamo, but if he scores it motivates his team).
On the defensive side, the US has given up just 6 goals in 5 games, while Canada has given up 14. The unit in red, white and blue is much more stout physically than Canada's, and while at once not as offensively gifted, they will hit you in the mouth without hesitation. The United States has played much more physically than any other team in this tournament, and if the trends continue today (Miller as a brick wall, USA as an opportune team, a little too much pressure on Canada), the Americans will have their first Gold in 30 years. However, I must stick with my guns, I've been harping on Canada as the gold winner for three weeks now, and I see them getting the job done today, 4-3.
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